After Algeria has cut off gas supplies, what are the options for Morocco?

Morocco says the direct repercussions of Algeria’s decision to cut off gas supplies through the pipeline that crosses its territory are “negligible”, but did not specify how it will compensate for any shortage. in one moment in which adopts long-term plans to promote renewable energy sources and import liquefied natural gas.

Despite the strained relations between the two countries for years, often due to the fate of the disputed territory of Western Sahara, in 1996 they agreed with Spain on a pipeline. The agreement led to the construction of a 1,300 km gas pipeline to transport gas from Algeria to Spain via Morocco, which in exchange gets 7% of the gas with one media of 700 million cubic meters per year.

After a year in that relations between Algeria and Rabat have deteriorated, before the agreement expired on October 31, Algeria said Spain will supply gas through another pipeline and will no longer send gas in Morocco.

With tensions still high over Western Sahara and other issues, there appears to be little prospect of a rapid improvement in relations.

To what extent has Algeria’s decision damaged Morocco?

About one-tenth of Morocco’s electricity production of 38,700 gigawatts depends on Algerian gas, which is used in two power plants in northern Morocco and is used only during peak demand periods.

However, Morocco has had an electricity surplus in recent years and has been exporting electricity since 2018 in Spain through two subsea lines with a combined capacity of 1,400 megawatts.

A senior official said the demand fluctuates in Morocco are mainly related to industrial production, which declined during the Corona pandemic.

He added that other power plants can increase their production if necessary. Most of Morocco’s energy production comes from coal, fuel oil and renewable energy sources.

the choices available

The National Bureau of Electricity and the National Bureau of Hydrocarbons and Minerals said on Sunday that “necessary measures” have been taken to ensure the stability of electricity supplies. in anticipation of Algeria’s decision, but did not specify what these measures would be.

They added that Morocco has “sustainable alternatives in the medium and long term”, without going into details.

The senior Moroccan official said Rabat is still talking to Spain about the possibility of supplying gas to Morocco through the existing pipeline.

Two traders said Spain, which relies on Algeria for much of its energy supply, would disagree for the time being.

Morocco has also granted import licenses to some companies private of the gas, but did not disclose if it was in negotiations with some of them to supply fuel to power plants.

And the medium and long term?

Morocco is in the prime phases of the tender offer for a floating station of liquefied natural gas, with a capacity of up to five billion cubic meters per year. It recently changed specifications to add a potential new location for the plant off Tangier, where it could be connected to the now defunct Algeria-Spain pipeline.

However, these projects usually take two to three years to complete even after major contracts are awarded.

The government has said it wants to gradually replace coal with gas, but other proposed projects, including more LNG plants and a gas pipeline to Nigeria, won’t be implemented until years later, at best.

The National Bureau of Hydrocarbons and Minerals has issued licenses for onshore and offshore exploration in hopes of increasing current production by 100 million cubic meters per year.

Le Matin reported last week that Morocco is moving forward with plans to increase the share of renewables in the energy mix to 52% by 2025 and to 64% by 2030, from 36% in 2020.

Although it lagged behind in achieving its renewable energy goals, Morocco has implemented major projects in solar and wind energy and is planning more.

The Moroccan Sustainable Energy Agency did not respond to Reuters’ request to comment on its goals and plans.

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