Wall Street Strategist Expects Continued Rally for Stocks in 2023
Fundamentals support the first-half rally for stocks in 2023 and still have upside remaining, according to one of Wall Street’s top strategists.
Higher Year-End Price Target for S&P 500
In a note to clients on Sunday, Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian hiked her year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4,300 from 4,000. The new target is about 2.6% above where the index closed on Friday.
Strong Performance in 2023
The S&P 500 is already up more than 9% year-to-date. The gain for stocks this year has come despite stubbornly high inflation and signs of a potential recession coming later in the year.
Structural Shifts at Major Companies
However, Subramanian said that investors should take note of structural shifts at major companies, including the potential of artificial intelligence to improve efficiency.
“The era of easy money is behind us, but that might be a good thing. Over the past few decades, we have enjoyed financially engineered growth: cheap financing, buybacks, and cost-cutting,” Subramanian wrote. “Today, Corporate America has shifted focus to structural benefits – efficiency/automation/AI and have bought themselves time to adapt via long-dated fixed rate debt. Old economy cyclical, capital-starved since 2008, have become disciplined and self-sufficient, evidenced by lower betas and more stable earnings.”
Undervalued Stocks
Those shifts mean that stocks are not overpriced despite surprisingly high valuation multiples, Subramanian argued. “Current valuations are not low, but rarely are low during profits recessions. On cyclically adjusted earnings, valuations argue for 5% per year price returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade – better than the negative returns yielded by valuation signals at the beginning of last year,” Subramanian said.
New Target Above AsumeTech Market Strategist Survey Average
The new target puts Bank of America above the AsumeTech Market Strategist Survey average. The highest target among major Wall Street firms is still 4,575 from CFRA’s Sam Stovall.