North Korea’s recent missile launches have raised tensions on the Korean Peninsula, but there’s another threat that should not be overlooked.

According to Naoko Aoki, an associate political scientist with the Rand Corporation, the threat of conventional artillery strikes from North Korea is significant.

With the world’s fourth largest armed forces, North Korea’s military poses a formidable danger. In late 2022, it had 1.3 million active military personnel and a 600,000 strong reserve force.

While North Korea’s armed forces are no match for the combined U.S. and South Korean forces, they still have the capability to inflict immense damage through conventional arms.

North Korea has repeatedly threatened to turn Seoul into a “sea of fire” using its arsenal of weapons. This threat should not be underestimated, according to Victor Cha, senior vice president and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Experts estimate that North Korea maintains around 6,000 artillery systems within range of South Korean population centers. In the event of an attack on civilian targets, these systems could potentially cause mass casualties, with more than 10,000 people killed in just an hour.

Even brief and targeted attacks have the potential to destroy critical industrial facilities and severely harm the South Korean economy. Key locations such as Samsung Electronics’ Pyeongtaek plant and LG Display’s largest OLED manufacturing plant are within range of North Korea’s artillery.

While North Korea’s threats are alarming, military planners and senior national security officials in Seoul and Washington are well aware of the constant artillery threat. However, experts believe that such a threat is unlikely to force South Korea into a specific course of action.

In the event of an actual attack, South Korean and U.S. forces would respond with full force. North Korea, on the other hand, would not fare well in a conventional warfare against the combined allied forces.

It’s important to note that South Korea is also capable of launching a counterattack on short notice.

In the event of a North Korean attack on civilian targets, allied forces would swiftly neutralize North Korea’s systems. The damage inflicted by North Korean artillery may be overestimated, as counter battery fire from U.S. and South Korean forces can quickly neutralize the threat.

North Korea’s missile program is designed to withstand preemptive strikes and has the capability to strike the U.S. The regime’s ultimate goal is to create a “decoupling dynamic” between the U.S. and South Korea by posing a homeland security threat.

It is important to view North Korea’s threats in their entirety, considering the conventional artillery threat, missile and nuclear program, as well as its cyber attack capabilities.

Ultimately, North Korea aims to remove the U.S. from the Korean Peninsula and gain a nuclear advantage over South Korea.