Taiwan’s President-Elect Faces Challenges with a Split Parliament

Taiwan’s President-Elect Faces Challenges with a Split Parliament

Taiwan’s president-elect, Lai Ching-te, will face a split parliament that is expected to moderate his policy agenda. The Taiwan People’s Party, with eight seats, is seen as the kingmaker since neither of the two major parties secured an outright majority in the 113-seat Legislative Yuan.

The election was a three-way race between candidates from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the main opposition party, and the pro-Beijing Kuomintang (KMT), along with the smaller Taiwan People’s Party.

The KMT won 52 seats in the legislature, one more than the DPP. The KMT’s presidential candidate, Han Kuo-yu, who faced controversy as the recalled mayor of Kaoshiung and as the KMT’s nominee in the 2020 presidential election, may be chosen as the party’s Speaker. If the KMT forms a coalition with the TPP, Han’s contentious approach may be tempered by its potential coalition partner.

While Lai won the presidential election with 40% of the popular vote, the DPP lost 10 seats in parliament, resulting in the loss of its majority.

“The TPP is in a great strategic position to make or break Lai’s legislative hopes.”

– Timothy S. Rich, Western Kentucky University

During a post-election press conference, Lai pledged to govern with an open mind and seek consensus in the divided legislature.

Sara Newland, an assistant professor in government at Smith College and a scholar of local politics in China and Taiwan, explained, “Because the KMT did not win a majority in the legislature, they will be dependent on the support of the TPP to build a majority coalition. If the KMT opposes everything the Lai administration wants to do, they may have difficulty sustaining that coalition. The TPP’s policy positions aren’t very stable, so they could just as easily cooperate with the DPP as the KMT on many issues. I don’t think it’s in the TPP’s interest to be part of a coalition that halts the legislative process; it would appear hypocritical.”

Anticipating a More Restrained China Policy

The election outcome may result in President-elect Lai adopting a more restrained China policy, considering that both the KMT and TPP have advocated for a conciliatory approach. However, Beijing is expected to increase pressure on Taiwan’s government when Lai is officially inaugurated as president in May. The newly elected parliament will take office next month.

Gabriel Wildau, Teneo’s managing director focusing on political risk in China, stated, “Lai refrained from provocative pro-independence rhetoric during the campaign, and our base case is that his administration will show continuity with Tsai [Outgoing President], who exploited anti-mainland sentiment while avoiding obvious provocations.”

Wildau added, “Beijing will pay particular attention to signals from Lai’s inauguration speech. Apart from military exercises, Beijing may also impose new tariffs or sanction Taiwanese companies that are political donors to the DPP.”

Beijing has consistently labeled Lai as a “stubborn worker for Taiwan independence” and a dangerous separatist, framing the election as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.” The Chinese Communist Party has refused to engage with President Tsai Ing-wen since she assumed office in 2016. Tsai did not stand in this election as she has already served the maximum two presidential terms.

“Democracy is compromise. Lai will be forced to reach consensus first before he can secure his policy bills. It may also constrain him to be more moderate.”

– Wei-Ting Yen, Franklin and Marshall College

China maintains a claim over Taiwan, which has been self-governing since the Chinese nationalist party, Kuomintang, fled to the island following their defeat in the Chinese civil war in 1949.

The DPP does not accept the so-called “1992 Consensus” and disputes the tacit agreement for “one China” between the then-KMT government and Chinese Communist Party officials, which Beijing considers as the basis for cross-Strait engagement.

Lai stated his commitment to peace in the Taiwan Straits and openness to resume talks based on “parity and dignity.” However, he also emphasized his determination to protect Taiwan from threats and intimidation by China.

Finding Consensus or Facing Gridlock?

During a post-election press conference, Lai committed to building “a new political environment of communication, consultation, participation, and cooperation” in the new legislature.

Timothy S. Rich, a professor in political science at Western Kentucky University, explained, “Lai’s statements about consensus-building are likely not just because he only won 40% of the vote and wants to address concerns about relations with China, but also practical.”

The emergence of Ko Wen-je as the presidential candidate for the Taiwan People’s Party has disrupted the usual DPP and KMT duopoly. This is partly due to rising dissatisfaction among Taiwanese youths who feel that the ruling DPP has not adequately addressed their urgent everyday economic issues.

Timothy S. Rich added, “I expect that the split legislature will make it challenging for the Lai administration to pass much of their agenda unless they coordinate with the TPP or focus on areas of broader consensus. The TPP holds a strategic position with the potential to determine the fate of Lai’s legislative goals.”

During his campaign, Lai highlighted the financial sustainability of Taiwan’s labor and health insurance, as well as the country’s energy transition as urgent issues that he will prioritize in seeking consensus. He also stated that he will appoint professionals and personnel based on merit, disregarding political affiliations in the “spirit of a democratic alliance.”

“The silver lining is that it may not be negative for Taiwan’s democracy,” said Wei-Ting Yen, an assistant professor in government at Franklin and Marshall College. “Democracy is about compromise. Lai will be compelled to reach consensus before he can secure his policy bills. This may also constrain him to adopt a more moderate approach.”

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