The climate crisis likely to exacerbate cross-border clashes, exacerbate conflict over water and migration and cause instability, especially in develop countries, in manners die can threaten global security, the Biden administration warned on Thursday.
a link of simultaneously released reports from the White House, the US intelligence agency community and the department of Defense paints a grim picture of the raft of security and humanitarian disasters die could strike at the same time climate disaster stays set in.
They warn that rising temperatures and extreme physical effects are likely to lead to conflicts over water and om the movement of tens of millions of people over the next 30 years, including within the US where sea level rise, drought and forest fires already menace communities.
In one of the more ominous premonitions, US intelligence predicts that new disputes may arise between countries die want to unilaterally protect themselves by deploying a strategy known as large-scale solar geoengineering.
Should any country conclude that? international attempts to de global temperature rise to 1.5C over had pre-industrial levels failed, it can be its own use of geoengineering – an attempt to cool the planet by reflecting sunbeams back until space by the injection of stratospheric aerosols of other risky techniques.
“Without a international agreement on this technologies, we estimate that such a unilateral effort would likely cause backlash,” the intelligence report said.
It added that such large-scale geoengineering could be internationally disruptive by disrupting the Earth’s biosphere, leading in turn to changed weather patterns die may have adverse effects in some regions.
“Depending on on the scale and location of implementation, it can change weather systems in the United States,” the report warned.
The three reports of the estimate of the national intelligence service, the Pentagon and the White House became in commissioned by Joe Biden in February, when he asked him national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, to watch options for how To hang out with increased migration like a result of the climate crisis.
The move comes as world leaders prepare to meet for crucial UN climate talks in Scotland later this month.
Under the trilogy of reports is from the Biden administration first national intelligence estimate (NIE) on the climate crisis.
The estimate warns that if the extreme physical effects of rising temperatures and sea level speed up, they are likely to “exacerbate cross-border geopolitical flashes” points as states take steps to safeguard their interests… Geopolitical tensions are likely to increase as countries arguing more and more over how to accelerate the reductions in net emission of greenhouse gasses”.
The worst effects are probably concentrated in develop countries least able to handle. Like a result instability and internal conflicts can set in, according to the estimate.
“The United States and Partners face costly challenges that will be more difficult to manage without concerted effort to reduce emissions and global warming.”
The NIE report highlights 11 countries die are particularly vulnerable to crises in their energy, food and water supplies: Afghanistan, Burma, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Colombia and Iraq.
The White House report focuses on on what it predicts will be the “tens” of millions of people likely to be moved over the next two to three decades due in great measure of the effects of climate change”.
Already, more than 21 million people were each met violence expelled year between 2008 and 2016 weather-related hazards, and the manifestation of that large human movements are likely to be increasingly transboundary.
The potential political and military precipitation could also pose a threat to the US, reports say also warn. US allies could be destabilized by migration due to the climate crisis, while adversaries such as China and Russia could exploit the moment and “seek influence through direct support being influenced countries wrestle with political upheaval in bandage met migration”.
The Pentagon report makes a special case of the Indo-Pacific region. Rising sea level and extreme weather could set up US “warfighting infrastructure” risk, for example in Guam, the Marshall Islands and Palau, where the US plays a major role military presence.
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