College Bowl Picks: Expert Tips, Tips, Strategy for Their Collections

It’s college football bowl season. In this post, based on more than six years of proven results in thousands of real-world pools, we will formulate a three-step framework to give yourself the best chance of winning the 2019 collection contest or pool of points.

This analysis brings you to TeamRankings.com, the only site that uses advanced analytics and game theory to optimize the options for office football pools. To see their suggested options for each game, tailored to the size and size of the bowl pool scoring system, check out their bowl collections at the 2019 college.

College Bowl Options: How to Win a College Bowl Pool Options

Identify the bowl favorites – objectively

In the long run, people – including yourself, your friend who watches a ton of college football, and the so-called “experts” on television – are almost never the best predictors of bowl games compared to good market forecasts or online betting. .

When it comes to college football pools, people also fall prey to irrational prejudices that you can take advantage of to get an edge.

Let’s take this year’s Las Vegas bowl between 12-1 Boise State and 7-5 Washington. Boise State is ranked. Washington is not. And Boise State obviously has the best record of profits. Not surprisingly, over 80% of the first public collectors get Boise State to win.

However, Washington is a 3.5-point favorite in the betting market, while data-based forecasts are 4.8 points better in a neutral field. What gives?

First, the public may not understand the difference in the timing that these teams faced, as the Pac-12 is tougher than Mountain West. Another problem is to focus too much on win-lose records instead of better predictors such as scoring differentials. Washington was poor (and probably unlucky) 0-4 in close games. One or two more lucky bounces on these games, and the Washington era could look a lot better on paper.

Add a dose of Washington coach Chris Petersen to quit after the game, and the public is far from betting on this one. And this is just a multi-bowl game where the Bowl Pick ’em Picks product has identified a possible irrational public bias.

MORE: Bowl Pick ’em selections from TeamRankings.com

College Bowl Picks: How to Locate Deprived Teams or Upset

Use the popular bowl option to locate undervalued groups

In order to win the team cup competition, you will need to have at least one option to turn your opponents into. This is the only way to finish with the most points.

This critical aspect of bowl strategy seems pretty obvious, but it is often overlooked in the selection strategy. In short, your goal is not to correct an arbitrary number of bowl options. Your goal is to finish at least one point higher in the final rankings than your next opponent.

As a result, you will almost always increase your chances of winning a pool bowl pool by taking advantage of the best opportunities to make unpopular choices. Why; Because if you make a choice that all your opponents think is crazy, and you do it right, you will gain some serious ground in the rankings. If you win right and your entire pool makes the same choice, you win nothing.

How to design the bowl Select the popularity and determine the value options

Estimating how popular each team’s pool pool selection is is never an exact science, but with some ingenuity you can find the popular data of popular selections published by some of the college hosting pool sites. Using this national data as a baseline, you can make some adjustments for your particular group.

Of course, popular choices are often (but not always) risky ones, so you should evaluate the risk of making every possible choice together with the reward associated with the right choice. The most useful approach is to use earnings returns and select popularity data to identify groups that fall into one of the following two categories:

Teams that prefer to win but are collected by less than 50 percent of the public. We often refer to these groups as “value favorites” and are the closest you can get to prepaid options. Favorites that receive lower percentages of their returns, even if the audience turnout is just over 50%, are also excellent values. For example, Texas A&M, as a seven-time favorite in the post time betting market, has a 70% chance of winning Texas A&M, but only 50% of the public wins.

Teams that are light to moderate outsiders but significantly underestimated by the public. It’s always a risk to pick an outsider, so you have to be very careful when deciding when and where to make an upset choice. But unpopular outsiders can offer a good opportunity to diversify entry into the bowl pool, especially if they are not too dangerous. This year, Iowa State is a mediocre 3.5-point underdog against Notre Dame, but the Cyclones are only collected by the public around 16 percent of the time. This is less than half the actual return on profits, so in some types of pools, the risk of choosing the state of Iowa may be worth it.

This last point is worth repeating. With a few exceptions, one of the worst things you can do is make a modern choice. Consider the following two groups:

State of Iowa: 16 percent selection popularity, 3.5-point underdog against Notre Dame
Boise State: 56 Percent Popularity Pick, 3.5-point Underdog vs. Washington

If you want to get a gamble on one of the two upgraded options above, you would be crazy to get Boise State, not Iowa State. Both teams are outsiders at 3.5 points, and therefore equally dangerous choices. But if the state of Iowa wins you will gain ground on about 85 percent of your opponents. If Boise State wins, more than half of your pool will get points with you.

College Bowl Picks: Mapping trust points, picking against spread

MORE: Bowl Pick ’em selections from TeamRankings.com

Now comes the hardest and most complicated part of getting an edge over your opponents. You have to figure out the exact combination of 41 choices (assuming your pool includes this year’s Celebration Festival) that you have to make with each of your pool listings and possibly add a confidence rating to each one.

What is so difficult about this process is understanding the impact of the different characteristics of your particular group. Factors such as the total number of entries in your pool, the type (eg game winner or spread, confidence points or not), the scoring system and the prize structure all play a role in determining the options that give you the best chance of winning. win.

The approaches we use to optimize pool options are beyond the scope of this post, but here are some quick tips:

In a smaller pool with bowls (i.e. less than 50 entries), you should focus on your favorites and be very selective about taking extra risks. As boring as it sounds, the feeling that you have to make a bunch of upset choices is often the kiss of death in small pools. Unskilled opponents in small pools tend to shoot themselves in the foot by making choices that are very aggressive, and you can often get a steady advantage simply by staying conservative.

In larger pools with cups the most common mistake that unskilled players make is the opposite: Their choices are very conservative. Your chances of winning a large pool are already low enough, and playing it safe rarely improves. In order to maximize your edge in a large pool, you usually have to take multiple bets on large value options.

In confidence pools, it’s not worth worrying too much about low-confidence options. Your strategy for the higher confidence you choose and how those choices end up being much more likely to determine whether or not it is a rewarding year for you. Instead of getting five tweaks for a small number of points, it is sometimes more reasonable to put a greater number of confidence points in the best choices or value disturbances and give yourself a chance to make a big jump in the ranking with a good result.

In scatter-based pools, you need to understand the role of the spread point as the large equalizer. Sports books are good at what they do and if your suite has up-to-date lines for every game, you won’t have much more than a 50/50 chance of making the most of the right choices. As a result, the popularity of lectures tends to be a major driving force of optimal strategic choice in dispersal groups. if you think 75 percent of your opponents will get one side and the point that spreads to your pool still matches the current point spread in real life, it’s almost always better to choose the other way, no matter what how strongly you personally feel about the game.

Get expert choices from pool pool benefits

We hope this article has helped explain some of the key strategies you can use to win more college football soccer competitions. Is it complicated and time consuming to apply this level of analysis to the 2019 bowl options? Absolutely. If you are serious about winning, however, the expected long-term compensation can easily justify the effort.

However, if you prefer outsourcing all the numbers to our office team experts, we are here to help. We build or collect all the data mentioned in this post (updated betting odds, algorithm forecasts, public branding trends, etc.) and have manufactured a product that makes personalized game suggestions per game for all your college bowl picks

Just answer a few questions about your pool and in a matter of seconds you have the options that maximize your chances of winning. Learn more here:

MORE: Bowl Pick ’em selections from TeamRankings.com

TeamRankings also offers data-based betting options.

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