Emmanuel Macron Why could the French economy secure his re-election?

Emmanuel Macron is still in head to the polls after the first round of the French presidential elections, although a second term is not as formal as it seemed two months ago.

With the world going through turbulent times due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the repercussions of the Corona pandemic, it is likely that the state of the French economy and its prospects future they will play an important role in the elections.

To assess this, Nicolas Pisani, professor of strategy and international affairs at the International Institute for Management Development (IMD), wrote an article focusing on the most important points of the recent performance economy of France that should be investigated.

The numbers indicate that Macron was doing well, especially compared to the other major economies in the world, and certainly much better than initially expected when the pandemic arrived.

According to Pisani, Macron has invested in smart way public funds derivativesin much of it from rising debt, in an effort to make the business environment more attractive to existing and new institutions, not least those working in technology, according to The Conversation. .

The prime 10 economies

local production

The graph shows changes in French GDP along with other demand-related indicators, ranging from household consumption to foreign demand for French goods. GDP growth rate can be seen returning to pre-Covid levels by the fourth quarter of 2021 which means the economy is growing in exponential way.

GDP growth for the first half of 2022 is expected to reach 3.2%, following an annual growth of 7% in 2021.

On the other hand, France is a major exporter of medicines, military equipment and automobiles, among other things, but exports are the only indicator in the chart that is still below the pre-coronavirus numbers.

It is also likely to be further affected by EU sanctions on Russia, as Russia buys just over 1% of French products.

This damage will be in to some extent offset by a growing shift away from globalization, which will likely spur French multinationals to grow their businesses within France itself.

Despite this, France already imports more than it exports, and with the recent widening of the French trade deficit, imports have become more dominant, and one of the tasks that will be among the priorities of the next French president, as self-sufficiency has become more than one virtue.

During Macron’s tenure, inflation and unemployment indicators showed a performance moderate.

Unemployment

France’s unemployment rate fell to 7.4% in the last quarter of 2021, a level not seen since 2008. This is evidence of Macron’s reforms during his tenure, the most important of which are the reduction of ” corporation tax from 33.3% to 25% and pressure to change French labor law to make it easier for companies to lay off workers in redundancy.

Although the reforms have increased workers’ job insecurity, they have also created a more vibrant labor market by encouraging companies to hire individuals as long as there is a door to get them out.

Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire praised the historical fact that in France in 2021 nearly one million companies were established. Others pointed out that most of these companies were in small businesses with one or very few employees. Either way, people’s desire to set up new businesses was in largely seen as an indicator of the viability of the economy.

Macron is pushing it as one of his biggest wins of his first term and could be one of the factors that could see him win at the end of today’s race.

Inflation rate

French inflation rose to 4.5% in March and the data shows a worrying bullish trend since last summer, but it is still one of the lowest among European countries, with the rate in Germany at 7.3% e in Spain at 9.8%.

One reason is that France derives most of its energy from its fleet of nuclear power plants, so it has been relatively isolated from rising oil and gas prices that have caused crises elsewhere.

We must also not forget that, like many other countries that have responded to the challenges of the pandemic, the French public debt / GDP ratio has risen from 98% in 2019 to 116% in 2021.

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