Is Elio Set to Break Pixar’s Box Office Expectations?

Elio has made its mark as one of Pixar’s most anticipated releases, capturing attention since its debut. The 2025 animated film follows an 11-year-old named Elio (voiced by Yonas Kibreab), who has an insatiable fascination with aliens. In a twist of fate, he finds himself mistaken for Earth’s ambassador by an extraterrestrial organization known as the Communiverse. This plot setup offers a blend of wonder and comedy, tapping into themes of identity and belonging.

Despite earning a Certified Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes with a score of 82%, Elio opened to surprisingly dismal numbers, grossing just $20.8 million over its first three days. This figure marks the lowest domestic debut ever for a Pixar film, eclipsing even the original Toy Story, which debuted in 1995 with a then-record of $29.1 million.

According to reports from Variety, as of Sunday morning, Elio is projected to earn $4 million during its fourth weekend, bringing its cumulative domestic total to approximately $63 million. This puts it ahead of the $61.5 million grossed by 2020’s Onward and elevates it to the position of the 16th release in 2025 to cross the $60 million mark.

The aforementioned figures do not factor in films like Soul, Luca, and Turning Red, all of which debuted on Disney+ during the pandemic yet were eventually re-released in theaters. While Elio has surpassed Onward, it’s crucial to note that the latter film also struggled due to the pandemic-related shutdowns shortly after its release.

What This Means for Elio

Beating Onward Should Have Been Easier

The path for Elio and Onward has not been equal, given the circumstances surrounding their releases. Onward debuted on March 6, 2020, only to see its theatrical run slashed due to the onset of COVID-19, making its subsequent availability for premium on-demand viewing just two weeks later. To put this into perspective, here’s how Elio compares to other Pixar releases from the 2020s that saw traditional domestic theatrical releases:

Title

Domestic Box Office

Worldwide Box Office

Onward (2020)

$61.5 million

$133.3 million

Lightyear (2022)

$118.3 million

$218.9 million

Elemental (2023)

$154.4 million

$484.8 million

Inside Out 2 (2024)

$652.9 million

$1.699 billion

Elio (2025)

$63 million (& counting)

$117 million (& counting)

To climb further up Pixar’s 2020s rankings, Elio would need to generate an additional $55.3 million in domestic box office sales, a daunting task given that this amount nearly matches its entire earnings in the first month of release.

Our Take On The Elio Box Office

Its Future Still Looks Grim

Despite reaching this significant milestone, the future for Elio at the box office appears bleak. The film’s reported budget is an eye-watering $150 million, a target that seems increasingly unrealistic. To truly recoup costs, estimates suggest that the break-even point may soar as high as $375 million.

Such statistics cast a shadow over the film’s prospects, leaving many to wonder whether this fascinating story of an unorthodox alien encounter will ultimately resonate with audiences as initially hoped. While the film may boast charming aspects and stunning animation typical of Pixar, the upcoming weeks will reveal whether Elio can transform its current trajectory into a success story.

Source: Variety

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