Week 15 is on the horizon, and for as much fun as the festive season can bring, the fact that we have less than a month of regular football is jarring. While we only have three full daily fantasy football plates left on the tab, this is exciting for a number of reasons. Nothing leans more than a weak game plate after 4:00 pm. ET, and the late afternoon window on Week 15 brings us five imposing games, some with immediate impact on the playoffs. We also have the first taste of playoffs with the Titans and Texans finishing in Nashville for the lead in the AFC South. Below we will look at RotoGrinders’ NFL DFS ownership numbers and how we can make the most of the DraftKings and FanDuel competitions, though we can use the wisdom of approaching the crowd when making our sports betting choices.
If you are a RA resident and want to try your hand at some sports betting in Pennsylvania over the fantastic football action, be sure to check out the US bets before proceeding.
Now, let’s take week 15 analysis …
WEEK 15 DFS LINEUPS:
FD Cash | FD GPP | DK cash DK GPP | Y! Cash Y! GPP
Week 15 DF NFL Predicted Property: Quarterback
LOW: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers @ Lions (7.9% at FanDuel, 7.0% at DraftKings). We have currently designed Winston as the fourth most popular QB at FanDuel and the fifth most popular at DraftKings. I can see him coming down a little below that mark largely because of Mike Evans’s absence, but if the public is looking more closely at the matchup instead of the fact that Winston is not his top player, turnout. Winston has a huge ceiling in this tie – he is consistently much better against the man coverage that the Lions usually play. Detroit also had issues all season to put pressure on the general, who ranked the latter a success rate. While the Lions aren’t hard enough to beat on the field, the Bucs are still profiled as a pass-happy offense, and I don’t expect a sudden burst from the running game even against a Detroit team that has to fight to move. annoying ball. Winston is confident with Chris Godwin, but Breshad Perriman, O.J. Howard and Justin Watson have all appealed as GPP stacking classmates.
HIGH: Ryan Tannehill, Titans vs. Texans (13.2% in FanDuel, 12.5% in DraftKings). Playing the full fade here is a bit inconvenient, but I think that’s where I end up coming in on Sunday. The Titans’ aerial attack has seen a complete resurgence since Tannehill came down the center and quickly dropped Tennessee to a great spot to make the postseason. The fact remains that the best way for the Titans to move the ball persistently is with Derrick Henry, which is a big part of why Tannehill has not exceeded 27 passes in his last four games and has fallen below 20. efforts in two of these competitions. It is incredibly effective from a fantastic perspective given the volume it sees, but it is not sold which can go on. Sure, Drew Lock made the Texans’ defense the appearance of a Division II college unit last week, but I would expect it to recover in a huge sectional game. I’ll be overweight here at GPPs – Tannehill is projected to be the most popular QB in both major areas.
Other notable low-QBs with the opportunity to develop: Eli Manning (vs. the Dolphins), Baker Mayfield (@ Cardinals)
Other notable QBs that I think are overpriced: Sun Murray (vs. Browns)
MORE WEEK 15 DFS: Prices | Stacks Line manufacturer
Week 15 NFL DFS Predicted Ownership: Running Back
I’m a little torn at this point. It’s quite rare, but this is a tough week to pick an RB I’m sure of the goodwill that lies below the pOWN ratings. There are some options under the 10 percent mark that I will be overweight. One is Kenyan Drake (vs. Browns), who saw David Johnson find the end zone in scoring, despite the fact that Drake still sees the lion’s share of snaps and touches in the backfield again. Arizona has a winning home draw with the Browns, and unless that gets away from the Cardinals, Drake should be a major part of the attack. I guess it will be overlooked given the Johnson TD last week and the lack of a real explosive game in recent weeks.
Philip Lindsay (@ Chiefs) is another back with some low ownership upside as he continued to handle most of the work with Royce Freeman acting in a more complementary role – the two had a more even split earlier in the year. Josh Jacobs (vs. Jaguars) is another look. If he was active, he would expect low ownership due to sitting down last week and the possible threat of aggravating his shoulder injury. However, if it’s out there I’d expect a regular workload, and with how badly the Jags offense has been dealt with lately, the Raiders could have a higher chance of scoring than usual.
It’s hard to drill holes in almost all the popular RB’s in Week 15. Chris Carson (@ Panthers) is expected to be the most popular back in the central plate and it makes sense, as Carolina has burned to the ground. With the Russell Wilson box mosquitoes delayed, this could be a Seattle ground control game. I will likely be scarce if it comes to the property that we have foreseen (29 percent). I expect Wilson to bounce back soon, and Carson is not at all consistent with a contributor through the air, so there are definitely avenues to frustrate him.
Another RB that I think is overpriced: Melvin Gordon (against the Vikings)
15 Weeks PPR: Running Back Wide Receiver Tight end
Week 15 NFL DFS Predicted Ownership: Great receiver
A.J. Brown vs. Titans Texans (24.8% in FanDuel, 19% in DraftKings). My issue with Brown is similar to my issue with Tannehill – I don’t think the volume is enough here to justify the ownership he is about to receive. Brown is currently designed to be the most popular WR on both major sites, and given the boom-or-bust style, I’m quite pleased to be very downgraded to it. Adam Humphries is still out, but he did not play much with Tannehill under center and the lack of effort that goes into this offense is still a concern. There are many suitable pivots in this range and I will try to diversify there.
Chris Conley, Jaguars @ Raiders (7.0% for FanDuel, 8.3% for DraftKings). Speaking of Brown’s suitable rotors, Conley creates a nice GPP game that would still have to fly under the radar, even with DJ Chark’s monster out of action. I would expect most of the field to turn to the more famous Dede Westbrook if he chooses a Jags wideout, but Conley is a more immediate replacement for Chark as he is a better threat under the area and will play overseas while Westbrook holds him duties at the reception. We saw A.J. Brown is ruining this second week and, given the size of the big game, it’s no surprise. The Raiders allowed the ball to be completed more fully in the NFL. I will be very overweight in Conley.
Other noteworthy low-priced WRs with the opportunity to develop: Will Fuller (@ Tennessee), Bresad Perryman (@ Lions), Merkel Williams (vs. Vikings), Terry McLaurin (vs. Eagles), Sterling Shepard (vs. Dolphins)
Other notable WRs that I think are overpriced: Christian Kirk (vs. Browns), Greg Ward (@ Redskins)
WEEK 15 RATING NON REPORTS:
Quarterback | Running back Wide receiver Tight end D / ST | Kicker
Week 15 NFL DFS Predicted Ownership: Tight end
O.J. Howard, Buccaneers @ Lions (6.5% for FanDuel, 7.35% for DraftKings). Oh boy, this is scary. Howard was one of the biggest DFS busts of the entire season and really didn’t have a real performance this season. With Mike Evans (jerk) out, we could finally have one on the horizon. I wouldn’t go near Howard in cash games because of what we saw at this point, but I don’t see Watson / Perriman eating all that Evans left, as well as Howard’s plans as a nice red zone piece without Evans’ big body available. As I noted with Winston, the Lions do not create a lot of pressure, which is expected to relieve some of Howard’s blockages and could lead him on some more routes. There is definitely a risk here, but at its price, Howard has plenty of GPP cap.
Other noteworthy low-ownership TEs with the opportunity to develop: Mike Gesicki (@ Giants)
Notable TEs that I find overpriced: Dallas Gomert (@ Redskins)