In this post we share three value-based options – two where attaching to the favorite gives the most value and one where taking a shot at a disruption could pay off – which can give you an advantage in your 2019 bowl college pick them contest or pool points.
This analysis is provided by TeamRankings, an area that has helped thousands of subscribers win prizes in football pools. For customized 2019 college bowl pool selection recommendations, see the Bowl Pick ’em Picks product.
MORE ORGANIZATION: The bowl selection strategy
2019 College Bowl Lectures: Three Values
With up to 41 games included (including the FCS Celebration Bowl), swimming bowl collections usually present a number of opportunities for smart players to get an advantage. In this article, we will discuss three options that stand out as value based on the combination of win odds and popularity choices. These range from underrated favorites to an unpopular underdog who has a nice shot to pull off an upset.
If you decide to select these teams, you should be top when making your choices in the 2019 college bowl because they represent some of the best opportunities to differentiate pool entry from your competitors and gain ground in your opponents rankings. pool. Acquiring a college pool pool is only for taking calculated risks and the teams below offer extremely rewarding risk profiles.
Keep in mind that the best choices for this college football bowl pool depend on many strategic factors, such as the number of entries in your pool. whether or not it uses trust, and the structure of the prize. If you would like our recommendations for your pool game, see our bowl selection options.
Note: Earnings returns and the most popular option display data listed below may change between posting time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest issues, our product is updated many times a day with the latest information.
Favorites of value
When a team is favored to win but has been picked up by less than half your opponents, this is as close to an option as it may seem.
Las Vegas Bowl: Washington Huskies (vs. Boise State)
Boise State enters the Las Vegas Bowling at 12-1 and ranks 18th in the latest AP poll. Washington was one of the favorites of the Pac-12 (along with Oregon and Utah), but struggled 7-5 and coach Boise State coach Chris Petersen quits after this bowl game, citing anxiety.
Washington, however, is the betting favorite at this point (3.5 points in post time) with about a 60% chance of winning. Predictive ratings also see our beloved Huskies. Why; Washington faced the toughest schedule, and much of the record difference between these teams can be explained by their results in close games, which can be greatly affected by luck (Boise State is 4-1, Washington 0 -4 in one-point games).
The public, meanwhile, views Boise State as the favorite, taking an estimated 56 percent of the time. This comes as no surprise when you have a 12-1 team facing a 7-5 opponent.
So how do favorites who have lower win-loss records become in bowl games? Nine puppet games have been played in the last five years, where a favorite has had at least two fewer wins and two more losses than his opponent. Boise State won one of those games two years ago against the favored Oregon at the Las Vegas Bowling, but the favorites are 7-2 overall in that stretch. In other words, you generally have to trust odds players when making a team with a particularly low profit loss record favorite.
Pinstripe Bowl: State of Michigan (vs. Wake Forest)
Speaking of teams favored despite having the worst record, the 6-6 Michigan State is up 4.5 points over 8-4 Wake Forest in the Pinstripe Bowl.
Our models give Michigan City a 65% chance of winning this game, but the public gets the Spartans about 58% of the time. By comparison, in three other cup games, where our predicted odds on the favorite are the most similar to the state of Michigan, the public gets the favorite much more often – 81% of the time.
Again, betting odds are probably doing a better job here at evaluating the impact of timing power, not overestimating the nearest discs. The public gives Wake Forest an outsider enough credit to offer some value to Michigan State’s selection.
None of these teams stood out against the tough competition this year. The Spartans went 0-4 against teams ranked in our top 10 ratings, while Wake Forest lost to Clemson 52-3 in the only game it played against a top 10 team (or top 30, for that matter).
However, the Big Ten teams have won their last three Pinstripe Bowl games in the Bronx, with Wisconsin crushing Miami last year and the Big Ten being 5-1 against the spread since coming into this bowl game. 2013. The Spartans are not at a climate disadvantage in this informal bowl game played in cold northern weather, and look like a solid game of value here.
MORE ORGANIZATION: The bowl selection strategy
Not all outsiders are created equal. If you are going to risk an upset option, you want to focus on highly undervalued teams that have a legitimate plan to win.
Frisco Bowl: Kent State Golden Flashes (vs. Utah State)
Kent State played a tough non-conference schedule and won early, losing to Arizona State, Auburn and Wisconsin by an average of 37 points. The Golden Glitter, however, improved in Sean Lewis’ second season of coaching and ended the year with three straight wins to make their first appearance since 2012. In fact, it is only the third bowl game in school history.
The state of Utah, meanwhile, started with a 4-2 start (with losses to LSU and Wake Forest), but ended up going 3-3 at Mountain West. This is the program’s eighth cup game in the last nine years (including a 52-13 win over North Texas last year in the New Mexico Bowl).
The state of Utah opened as a favorite octagon, but the line moved down to 6.5 points on Wednesday. Jordan Love, the Utah general, had a great year of sophomore year 2018, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and throwing 32 TDs and six INTs. But in 2019, those numbers have dropped to just 7.1 yards per attempt and 17 TDs against 16 INTs. Love has already announced that he is back in favor of this game, and just days before the bowl game, news has emerged that Love and two other teammates have been arrested for possession of marijuana, though Love is expected to play.
Judging the motivation for a bowl game may be difficult, but there are some concerns here that Kent State might focus more on this game. However, the public gives little chance to Kent State, saving only 13% of the time. This is the sixth-lowest selection percentage for any bowl team, and there are six other bowl games where the teams are double-digit underdogs.
Our projections give the Golden Flashes the chance to surpass their inconvenience by 36%. This is a relatively risky proposition, but in large pools with basins, this difference between upside (36 percent) and popularity (13 percent) can justify an educated bet. In smaller bowls with bowls, it’s probably not worth the risk.
See all bowl options and value for 2019
The three options above provide just a few examples of how you can use objective predictions and game theory to give yourself an advantage in basin selection and confidence points. By understanding which favorites are underappreciated and what the public is implying asleep, you can create a varied selection sheet that gives you the best chance of winning your pool.
We have gathered all the data and since our analysis our analysis has identified 16 value-driven options that are worth looking at based on their earnings returns and popularity. You can see them all in the Grid Data feature of the Bowl Pick ’em Picks product (as well as get our personalized suggestions on which ones to choose in your pool).
You can also read more about them in our post about the top value options for 2019 bowl pools, or just check out the full list of 1 to 41 college rankings.