Expert Week 16 NFL Tips: Pick ’em Pool Tips, Survivor Pools

As we approach the end of the year, the public tends to think that they have everything they understand when it comes to NFL options. But numbers still matter and it’s easy to overlook some teams – both beloved and underdog – that perform better than you think. Fortunately, the experts at TeamRankings are here to help you with the strategy and tips for choosing the week 16 NFL pick and em survivor pool.

To finish the year strong in soccer pools, you need to make calculated bets on high-value week 16 flights and avoid the risk-averse, modern upset options. TeamRankings is the only site that offers customized options that maximize your edge in survival teams. As of 2017, TeamRankings subscribers have reported nearly $ 1.5 million in survivor profits.

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Week 16 NFL Pick ’em Pool Tips, Analysis

A review of last week’s selection analysis

Last week we discussed three groups: Dallas, Tennessee and Pittsburgh. These games were all close to ejecting, but the public took on opponents more often than chance. Dallas ended their losing streak in an impressive way, with both Pittsburgh and Tennessee losing in the closest games.

So it was the first time in several weeks that calls came below public expectations, though the public had only won 1.3 in those three games, on average, thanks to how incredibly popular Dallas was.

16 WEEKS OF IMAGES RATING:
Quarterback | Running back Wide receiver Tight end D / ST | Kicker

The value of the picks for the 16 week NFL collection tanks

Getting the most advantage in the NFL pick ’em team requires that you know not only the odds of winning each team (that is, how risky an option is), but also how popular an option is. Why; Because when you select less popular teams and you win, you shoot the pool rankings in your office.

Based on your odds of winning and popularity, the three teams below offer some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 16 picks from your team’s opponents. To get all the sorting suggestions for your pool – tailored to the size, rules and structure of the prize – check out the Football Pick ’em Picks product.

Note: Earnings yields and estimated national top picks data may change between posting time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our football updates product updates many times a day.

Favorite value

Week 16 features one of the favorites that the public collects at a slower rate than the chance to win. These types of teams are as close as you can get to the “no-brainer picks” of NFL pick ’em contests as both payoffs and value are on your side.

Minnesota Vikings (vs. Green Bay)

We’ll start with the final game of the week, the last Monday night game of the year, between Minnesota and Green Bay. It is a game with a significant impact on the playoffs, as these two teams are still fighting to win the NFC North. Minnesota cannot move on to the lead tiebreaker, but it can beat the Packers with an 11-4 overall win, which would make Week 17 important for both sides.

Predictions give Minnesota a 70 percent chance of winning this one and are a favorite with 5.5 points. But the public is giving Green Bay more opportunities here, picking up the Packers to pull off the upset 40 percent of the time. This means there is value in playing your favorite Vikings here to continue.

We will note that despite Green Bay’s 11-3 record, this is the largest home run for the Vikings in a game against Green Bay since 2000. Minnesota has surpassed 7-3 since spreading its last 10 inside Green Bay. For the season, the Vikings have beaten their opponents by 119 points, while Green Bay is a plus-47 in points.

Publication

When a matchup is more or less a 50/50 proposition, it usually makes sense to select the least popular team. To win an NFL pick ’em pool, you’ll probably need some luck in these “coin flip” games, and when you get it, you want to maximize the upside by scoring points that most of your opponents are missing. We say “usually” because this strategy could be different if you drive your pool slowly and want to cover the most likely option your opponents will make. So for our subscribers, make sure you use the tips you’ve tailored to your ranking when deciding on this type of replication.

Cincinnati Bengals (in Miami)

The Bengals can secure the overall option no. 1 in the Draft NFL 2020 with a loss in Miami. It seems that the public is waiting to do just that. (They are likely to get the top pick if they win or lose, as they have a two-game “lead game” over everyone else with two games to play).

The Bengals are only an outsider and have a 49% profitability. The audience only gathers Bengal 16 percent of the time, so you can get a lot of value here by going against the crowd in this bad teams matchup.

Value Gambles

If you are going to make a bet on an underdog, you need to make sure that the potential reward (that is, how much your chances of winning your pool will increase if you win) is as high as possible. Take a bunch of extra risks in a super modern upset option, and the joke is on you.

The selection below is not suitable for all groups. These are the ideal choices for a week-long pool with a higher number of entrants and may also be the type of options you should start taking if you are running out of money or a little out of the money and need to gain some ground when the leaders it’s probably a zombie.

New York Jets (vs. Pittsburgh)

Pittsburgh has gone beyond the loss of General Ben Roethlisberger and is playing for the playoffs this week in New York. But things could eventually catch the Steelers offensively, as they averaged just 15.5 points in their last six games. Devlin Hodges dropped four tackles in the loss to Buffalo and the team had already gone to Mason Rudolph in favor of Hodges.

The jets are inconsistent, but have gathered some big shows in the house to pull over against Dallas and Auckland. With just 14 percent of New York’s public picking here, that’s another good value. The Jets are just a three-point underdog and have a 43% chance of winning according to our models.

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Week 16 NFL Survivor Pool Pick Tips, Analysis

Overview of last week’s Survivor Analysis

We felt that subscribers were in great shape last week, with San Francisco available at a much higher rate than the public, resulting in fewer “dangerous” recommendations. Well, it didn’t work out that way, as San Francisco lost after two seconds in the fourth quarter. The touchdown came in the final two seconds of a game that was originally called to a yard line. With this 49ers loss, about 40% of our recommendations were eliminated.

Add that we were also recommending raiders at a higher rate than the public, our recommendations had a rare week where they received casualties while the public survived at a higher rate. Our subscriber recommendations survived 34%, while the public survived at an estimated 79%.

For the whole year, our survival rate is still in the public, 1.2% to 0.3%.

Week 16 survivor pool destruction

The Seattle Seahawks is the most popular option this week with 24 percent popularity, followed closely Atlanta Hawks at 21%.

Of those two options, Seattle has the highest chance of winning as a 10-point favorite against Arizona at home, while Atlanta is a 7.5-point favorite against Jacksonville. Our models give Seattle a 78% chance of winning and Atlanta a 73% chance of winning.

The only other team this week planning more than five percent popularity is Pick Denver Broncos (13%), who host Detroit. Denver has not been used frequently in survivor groups this year and seems to be a popular choice for those looking for options. Our promotional models are not so optimistic about the Broncos’ odds, giving them a 64 percent payoff compared to a 73 percent win line betting odds.

These are the most popular options, but the two frequently recommended options for our subscribers this week are not. If you need help deciding who to use this week, check out the NFL Survivor Picks product for tips tailored to you.

More from TeamRankings:
College Dishes Options Football select ’em NFL Survivor Options | NFL betting options

Which of these NFL Week 16 picks should you make?

Once you get to know the NFL Week 16 best value opportunities, you can increase your chances of winning your pool by training them in games. But there are many possible decisions. Not all of these will make sense for your particular pools, and it takes a lot of data and math to get the right answers.

Fortunately we have the technology to do all the heavy lifting for you. You can use the links below to learn more about data-based game predictions, betting options and custom selections for select and survivor collections:

These are the most popular options, but some other options this week may be the best game for your pool. In fact, a group not discussed above is currently our usual recommendation to subscribers. If you need help deciding who to use this week, check out the NFL Survivor Picks product for tips tailored to you.

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