Exploring the Possibilities of a Second Year of War between Russia and Ukraine

Two days ago, the Russo-Ukrainian war officially entered its second year, amid constant battles in eastern Ukraine and heavy losses suffered by both sides in terms of human and material losses.

And while many Western intelligence agencies expected the battles to continue for a short time, questions are being asked about the scenarios that a second year of war that has cast a shadow over the entire world can bring. in an atmosphere reminiscent of the atmosphere of the cold war.

China in line

Perhaps the first scenario to emerge recently is the possibility of China stepping on the line. Since the beginning of the war, on February 24 (20229), Beijing has remained rather neutral, calling for dialogue and a cessation of fighting right from the start, but has never criticized Moscow, indeed it has blamed NATO, accusing it of the escalation that took place between Russia and Ukraine, because it did not take into account Russian concerns.
However, recent developments have pointed to the possibility of China’s support for Moscow.

Undoubtedly, if that happens, it could tip the balance, according to many military observers, in favor of the Russians. Thus, it could push Kiev back to the negotiating table and could further exacerbate the dossier as the conflict escalates.

big attack

As for the second possibility, also likely according to British and American intelligence, Russian forces will launch a major attack expected in spring.

No one can predict the winner, especially as Western countries have rushed in recent weeks to supply Kiev with more weapons, tanks and advanced missiles, while so far refraining from equipping it with advanced fighter jets similar to the American F-16 , due to the difficulty of training Ukrainian forces on them, as recently announced by US President Joe Biden.

Let’s go back to the negotiation

As for the third scenario, it is realized by returning to the negotiating table, through the portal of the proposal presented by China, which includes 12 points, first of all the ceasefire on both sides.

However, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has not rejected the Chinese proposal outright, his request for a Russian withdrawal earlier, knowing that Moscow would not accept it, derailed the chances of any negotiated solution.

More bleeding

The fourth and final option remains, which is the continuation of the struggle between the two sides, and therefore another year of attrition for the two sides, until one runs out before the other, with the consequent exorbitant costs, both in terms of human or material losses suffered by both parties.

It is noteworthy here that some Western estimates have reported the deaths of nearly 100,000 Russian soldiers so far in the battles, while Ukrainian estimates have gone as high as 200,000, although the Russian defense rarely announces the killing of its soldiers, and perhaps its last update in this context spoke of Approximately 6,000 soldiers have been killed so far.

Colin Kahl, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy:

The Russians probably lost half their tanks, they used up most of their guided ammunition in Ukraine and the sanctions will make it difficult for them to rebuild their army as it was before the war.

On the other hand, Ukrainian losses are no less serious, according to some American estimates, as Pentagon officials have previously reported that losses of Ukrainian forces are in somewhat close to the Russian ones.

In addition to these human losses, of course, there are billions of losses in Ukraine due to the destruction of infrastructure and many cities and public facilities in the country as a result of Russian bombing.