Bitcoin’s Next Moves Amid Market Shifts

The cryptocurrency market is undergoing intriguing changes, particularly with Bitcoin (BTC) maintaining its position above $100,000. Recent patterns in stablecoin inflows mirror levels observed after the collapses of LUNA and FTX, sparking discussions about new accumulation and potential breakout rallies.

Stablecoin Inflows: A Prelude to Accumulation

Bitcoin’s price resilience suggests that it may be at the onset of a significant rally, yet the lack of new user activity indicates a cautious “HODL” phase. On-chain data shows a familiar “demand generation” pattern akin to what followed the Terra/LUNA and FTX debacles. According to expert Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., the 30-day moving average of stablecoin inflows has dipped into negative territory, similar to the “blue zones” seen last year. This scenario indicates that participants are holding instead of selling, signaling a potential resurgence of demand amid low volatility.

If inflows can maintain or exceed levels recorded post-LUNA and FTX, we may witness the ignition of the next Bitcoin rally. The outlook becomes even more compelling when considering the disparity between Bitcoin inflows and stablecoin inflows, reflecting evolving trends in investor behavior.

Market Dynamics and Liquidity Imbalance

While Bitcoin remains strong, the New UTXO 30-day SMA—a key indicator of new network activity—hovers around 570,000. This figure is approximately 40% lower than the past trading levels of $60,000–$70,000, significantly below the 850,000–1 million range that supported the 2024 bull run. Such divergence hints at a scenario where long-term holders are not circulating their assets, potentially creating a supply squeeze that could result in rapid price increases with a surge in demand.

A sustained increase beyond 700,000 in the New UTXO metric could signal the arrival of fresh participants. Should figures climb above 850,000, it might substantiate the beginning of a full-fledged bull market driven by retail and institutional interests.

The Exchange Flow Multiple, which analyzes short-term versus long-term BTC inflows, has recently dropped to a zone indicating seller exhaustion. Historically, this level has marked points where reduced sell-side liquidity tends to ignite upward price movement. Additionally, whale activity is on the rise, with large transactions now making up 96% of all exchange flows, an indicator associated with potential major price expansions as these entities reposition assets strategically.

Despite these bullish indicators, challenges remain. The Apparent Demand metric shows a return to negative territory for the first time in two months, implying that buyer demand is insufficient to absorb selling pressure from miners and some long-term holders. This demand-supply imbalance raises concerns about a possible short-term correction.

Currently, Bitcoin’s trajectory depends on whether new demand can surpass residual selling pressure. A short-term correction may unfold if momentum stalls around crucial resistance levels at $110,000, but the groundwork laid by persistent HODLing and emerging whale activity points to an intriguing future for Bitcoin.