According to market research firm Circana, consumer spending on games in the US is predicted to decline by 10% this year. Analyst Mat Piscatella mentioned that this figure is on the more negative side of what could happen in the US market in 2024, but even the more positive scenarios indicate a tough 9 months ahead.

Piscatella stated, “Right now my most optimistic outlook is down about 2%. If you start looking a little bit on the more pessimistic side, you’re looking at down about 10%. If things really go sideways, you’re looking at a little bit more. There’s so much uncertainty when you look at the sales data or look to project this year.”

With major releases like Grand Theft Auto 6 delayed until 2025, the rumored Switch 2 also postponed to the same year, and Sony revealing they won’t have any big titles coming out, the games market is facing uncertain times. Piscatella noted that surprise hits like Helldivers 2 and Palworld have been successful early in the year but may not be enough to match the success of previous blockbusters.

He expressed, “The uncertainty level this year is probably the highest I can recall. We don’t have those big games announced that we know will drive sales, so it’s a challenging year for the industry overall.”

Circana also predicted a tough year ahead for games retailers, especially with Nintendo’s new hardware not expected to arrive and the ongoing shift towards digital sales. Piscatella mentioned, “Retail’s had to get really clever, and on the physical side of the business, it continues to decline. With no new Nintendo hardware this year, it’s going to accelerate because Nintendo is right at the 50-50 cusp when it comes to physical/digital, but everyone else is way digital.”

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