Joe Burrow is a virtual lock to win the 2019 Trois Trophy on Saturday. The LSU quarterback is the biggest favorite we’ve seen since Troy Smith won the award in 2006 and could surpass Smith as the Heisman Trophy winner with the second-highest total in history. While Burrow’s game has gotten some of the excitement from this year’s ceremony, there are other ways to find evening entertainment with these Heisman Trophy odds.
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Heisman Trophy odds for 2019
- Joe Burrow -30000
- Jalen Hurts +2500
- Chase Young +3300
- Justin Fields +3300
Burrow was the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy from the top LSU in Alabama’s first win eight years back in early November. He has set many SEC high school and record highs during his historic 2019 season and will compete with Billy Cannon as Trois Heisman’s second winner in LSU history on Saturday.
Unlike the other finalists for the prize, he had no game. Burrow is steep throughout the season and LSU has beaten five different teams in the top 10. The senior general has been the favorite for over a month as the best player on the best team on earth and there is no way anyone else to be named the winner on Saturday.
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So who will finish second in the vote?
- Chase Young +120
- Jalen Hurts +120
- Justin Fields +200
This will be the first piece of intrigue on Saturday night. Chase Young was the best defensive player in the country in 2019 and his performance against Wisconsin and Penn State made him a finalist for the award. He has taken a combined seven sacks in these two games and has 16.5 sacks a year.
Young’s profile is perhaps the biggest of the three finalists, but he could split votes with teammate Justin Fields. Fields has thrown 40 touchdowns with only one interception in Ohio’s leading state in an undefeated season.
The support of the wicked is the greatest mystery of any finalist. He is the only player to represent the Big 12 and should vote west of the Mississippi River, but there are two big questions about his candidacy.
The first question is whether voters are tired of Oklahoma. Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray won the Heisman Trophy in 2017 and 2018, and voters may tend to vote for other players just to have the support of someone other than Lincoln Riley.
The second question is whether voters will struggle with his statistics. The strikers made pace at Normandy this year, undermining both Mayfield and Murray thanks to his excellent running ability. He struggled under strain though he failed to pass for more than 170 yards in his last two regular season games against TCU and Oklahoma State.
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Total first place votes for Joe Burrow
- Over 805 first-place votes -500
- Under 805 First Positions Votes +300
Only two Heisman Trophy winners received more than 800 first place votes. O.J. Simpson won 855 first places, easily winning the Heisman Trophy over Leroy Keyes and Terry Hanratty, while Troy Smith charged Darren McFadden and Brady Quinn to claim the Heisman in 2006 with 801 first places.
Since there are 870 Heisman Trophy voters representing six different areas, the bottom line can be a good bet as some voters are likely to go against the grain. Regional ties typically run deep in the Heisman vote, and half a dozen players are worth the vote. In addition to the other three finalists, players like J.K. Dobbins, Jonathan Taylor, Chuba Hubbard, CeeDee Lamb, Travis Etienne and Trevor Lawrence can all vote.
Will Joe Burrow break O.J. Simpson’s record of 855 first places?
The best bet on the table is ‘no’ here. Since there are only 870 voters, Burrow should have won 98.4% of the first-place votes on Saturday, and this is very unlikely to happen, given the regional prejudices we have seen in the past.
For example, although Marcus Mariota was the third-largest Heisman winner in 2014, 37 voters backed Melvin Gordon III and 49 voters took Amari Cooper over Oregon’s general. Even players such as Trevone Boykin, Jameis Winston, Tevin Coleman, Dak Prescott and Bryce Petty have received first place votes, so Burrow is unlikely to start Juice here.