Jadwa Investment raises the estimates for the growth of the Saudi economy quest’year

Jadwa Investment expects overall GDP growth for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to reach 1.8%, up from 1.3% in its previous estimates.

He added that within these estimates, we expect oil sector GDP to decline slightly, year-on-year, to -0.7%, which is the same as previous estimates.

Jadwa Investment expects the non-oil sector to grow by 3.5%, mainly due to the growth of the private non-oil sector of 4.4%, up from 3.1%, according to its previous estimates.

In particular, Jadwa Investment expected higher growth for the non-oil private sector in three sectors: “real estate”, “non-oil industry”, “wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels”, and as a result, GDP growth is now expected to reach the Kingdom total at 1.8% compared to 1.3%, according to previous estimates.

Financially, Jadwa Investment said: “Since we raised our full-year Brent crude oil price estimates to $ 67 per barrel, we now expect government oil revenues to reach $ 568 billion. riyals in 2021 compared to 528 billion riyals, according to our previous estimates. “

At the same time, and without changes in public spending, the total budget deficit is expected to reach 67 billion riyals, or 2.1% of GDP, or 53%. in less than the budget deficit estimated by the Ministry of Finance.

Jadwa Investment said that looking ahead, the main risks to the Saudi economy are related to the potentially confusing nature of Covid-19, or more specifically, its mutations, as the Ministry of Health recently announced the presence of a delta mutant. in the Kingdom.

However, with the high vaccination rates and community immunity expected to be achieved by Q4 in the Kingdom, we are confident that the overall economic environment will continue to improve in the remainder of 2021.

Real GDP of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia recorded positive growth for the first time since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, by 1.5% in the second quarter of 2021, compared to the same period in 2020, according to quick estimates. disseminated by the General Statistical Authority.

According to the Authority, this positive growth is due to the 10.1% increase in non-oil activities, in addition to the 0.7% increase in government activities, while oil activities recorded a 7% decline.

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