LONDON — Prime Minister Boris Johnson once famously said he believed: in eat and eat his cake, and during a career of dizzying highs and lows he often got what he wanted while avoiding difficult choices.
But the days when he in could have both directions, seem to run out.
Mr Johnson must now choose between two emphatic but contradictory promises: more resources in social take care, but also until avoid raise taxes. And when Parliament returned from its summer holidays on Monday, that put him on An collision Class with legislators and some of its own cabinet members.
On Tuesday, Mr. Johnson is widely expected to break his vow not to raise taxes when he announces a plan to strengthen the nation. social care services, a long time goal of are that he announced outside Downing Street soon after becoming prime minister in 2019. Before the announcement, the blistering discord of members of its own conservative party has the problems die in ahead for An government that has accumulated up borrow during the pandemic, but are under enormous pressure to spend and deliver on it’s homey policy promises.
“It gets pretty crunchy,” said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London. “The 2019 general The election was all about getting Brexit done – but getting Brexit done in order to get it on with improve public Services.
“So Boris Johnson was… elected on best a lot of of promises. That always cost something money and in the context of the pandemic is less money around,” said Mr Bale.
The voltage mirrors current domestic politics in the US, where the Biden administration is pushing a $3.5 trillion spending plan that transform the social safety net and proposes to finance it with tax increases die already drawn fierce opposition from corporations and Republican lawmakers.
Amid growing species, rumors have surfaced of an imminent cabinet reshuffle, and last last month, Mr Johnson would even have proposed to demote his chancellor of the treasury, Rishi Sunak, a tax hawk who has emerged as a leading rival of the prime minister. However, on Monday Downing Street said there was no plan for every shake-up.
But the disagreement marks a new phase for the government as it pleases move away from pandemic crisis management and back in towards a tough domestic agenda, including the pledge to distribute wealth among more robbed parts of the country.
At the same time, Britain’s creaky National Health Service, die… already tense for the pandemic, now has a huge backlog of routine treatment and operations die had to be performed postponed. On Monday the government announced An cash injection of £5.4 billion, of $7.4 billion, to help agreement with Which issue.
Mr Johnson is eager to see the social care system – what in the first place is for the old, disabled and others die can’t care for itself — and cement it as part of his legacy. But are move get a grip on the financing, at the moment in British politics, is a gamble.
Immediately big majority in Parliament, the country out of lockdown and a respectable lead in the mid-term polls, could Mr Johnson have chosen? for a period of political consolidation after another traumatic year. Instead, he tackles a notoriously insidious one problem that guarantees a battle in Parliament.
His proposals will probably amount every UK citizen pays for social care over their life. That would prevent many from homes Pay for care, but would also mean investing more public money, mainly through education taxes.
In 2017, Mr Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May, lost her majority in Parliament after disastrous elections campaign in in which the opposition Labor party emphasized its pledge to reform social care, describing her plan as a “dementia tax.”
That expression was used by Labor to suggest that someone die needed care because he suffered from Alzheimer’s disease, less in would be able to pass on their home to their children than someone with a condition such as cancer. In Britain, a cancer patient would receive free medical care under the National Health Service.
For Mr Johnson, whose… government used to be on the defensive over the chaotic Brits military departure from Afghanistan, the focus on the domestic agenda is a chance until show voters who supported the conservatives for the first time in 2019 that he tackles the problems die concern them. Health care turned out to be a crucial issue in the 2016 Brexit referendum when pro-Brexit campaigners, including Mr Johnson, suggested leaving the European Union would allow £350 million, of $484 million, a week to go to the health department, a claim die by the head of the national statistical authority.
Critics dispute the fairness of the plan that Mr Johnson seems likely to propose, because in instead of raising income tax, the government expected to raise a tax die known as National Insurance. the last of this falls on workers on payrolls and therefore disproportionate on the working poor and the young. As many as three former conservative chancellors of the treasury has joined the chorus of criticism, including Philip Hammond, who said he would vote against such a plan in the House of Gentlemen.
Jake Berry, a member of an influential group of Conservative lawmakers from the north of England, also told the BBC the plan didn’t seem fair. The Labor Party plans oppose an increase in National Insurance, increasing the possibility of a closure vote in Parliament.
Perhaps the biggest danger for mr. Johnson is the hostility of fiscal conservatives on the right of to be party, who object to a tax increase, including: one senior little cupboard minister, Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Write in the Sunday Express, Mr. Rees-Mogg, leader of the House of Commons, recalled President George HW Bush’s quote: “Read my lips: no” new taxes’, noting that ‘voters are die words remembered after President Bush forgot them.”
Mr Sunak is also afraid to rule in expenses, a view that’s popular with the right wing of the conservative party.
“He believes there is a moral and political premium” on not raising taxes, not increasing spending and controlling borrowing,” said professor bale, who added this was “partly because he knows this was the beating heart” of the conservative parliamentary party lies.”
Professor Bale added that many conservative lawmakers, like their prime minister, seemed at the same time want to keep taxes low while spending large amounts on domestic priorities, their own version of Mr Johnson’s Philosophy, now nicknamed “cakeism.”
‘He becomes’out’caked’ by his supporters,’ said professor bale. “He seems in at least willing to approve some tax hikes, while his backbenchers seem… want something for nothing, so in on the one of otherwise he reaps what he has sown.”
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