The parties to the joint overall plan of Action will meet again in Vienna after almost six months to discuss a mutual return to the deal by both the US and Iran, but the hiatus has given time for new obstacles to take root.
On Friday, Iran announced yet more advances in its uranium enrichment, making the amount of time for Tehran to need to develop a nuclear weapon, if it so chooses, and announcement clearly intended to give Iran leverage when it arrives in Vienna for conversations.
Other parties to the agreement – including Germany, UK, Great Britain, France, China and Russia – are coming in the conversations to call for negotiations to pick up where she left off. European sources tell CNN they expect the Iranians treat the meeting as “round oneUS officials have expressed similar concerns.
the recently elected hard line government in Tehran sends a new set of negotiators to Vienna who have emphasized need for complete US sanctions lifting, non-compliance with the deal, while US officials have said they have absolutely no plans to offer Iran incentives to talk.
‘The time to choose is short’
And senior US officials have repeatedly warned that if progress in Iran’s nuclear program and enrichment capacity continue unabated, they can reap the benefits of the JCPOA dispute — a development that would force the US to pursue others options.
“We are still hopeful that diplomacy will wayBrett McGurk, the National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, told the Manama Dialogue organized by the International Institute for Strategic studies. “But if it can’t find it way, we are prepared to use other options.”
“There’s no doubt, we’re not going” allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon, period,” McGurk said. “And when it came down to it… military force for behavior change, that’s a rather vague goal for An military force. When it comes to military force to prevent a country from getting a nuclear weapon, that’s a very achievable goal.”
US Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley said: in a tweet after a November 18 meeting with allies in the Middle East and European parties to the deal die Iran could choose one of two paths: “continued nuclear escalation and crisis, of mutual return to the JCPOA, creating opportunities for regional economic and diplomatic ties.”
“The time to choose is short,” Malley wrote.
Sources known with preparatory work for According to the talks, the parties have closely monitored the International Atomic Energy Agency in watched director Rafael Grossi’s Visit to Tehran last week, see it as an indication of Iran’s approach to the talks in Vienna, said die sources. Grossi told the IAEA board afterwards that the conversations were “unconvincing”.
An of the controversial issue die is that Iran is refusing inspectors from IAEA monitoring access to the Karaj centrifuge production facility, die has resumed operations according to reports.
“This has serious consequences for the [IAEA’s] ability restore continuity of knowledge at the [Karaj] workshop, die is widely recognized as essential in bandage met a return to the JCPOA,” Grossi told a board of directors of meeting of governors on Wednesday.
The Arms Control Association noted that Iran’s refusal to allow the IAEA to install new camera’s of confirm that production has not restarted, attempts to revive the JCPOA in and undermine its strict verification regime if it is not possible to fully complete records of Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran’s refusal to grant access to Karaj also drives speculation and concern over what exactly Iran is doing, the ACA said.
On Thursday, the US Mission to International Organizations in Vienna told the IAEA meeting that “if Iran’s non-cooperation is not remedied immediately…especially the recovery” of continuity of acquainted with Karaj, the Board of Directors will have no choice but to meet again in exceptional session before the end of this year in to tackle the crisis.”
In the meantime, on Friday, Iran announced his stock of 60% enriched uranium has grown to 66 pounds (30 kilograms) and its amount of 20% enriched uranium had also increased. Both levels are much closer to weapons-grade uranium, which is over 90% enriched.
According to the Arms Control Association, enriching uranium to 20% constitutes “about 90 percent of the necessary work enrich it to weapons-grade.”
As Iran’s stockpiles grow, the ACA says, the breakthrough time, of the time die required to produce sufficient uranium enriched to weapons grade for one bomb, decreases. The ACA estimates that Iran’s current outbreak time is probably about one month, down from 12 months when the JCPOA was fully implemented.
Fortification was limited under the JCPOA, die The United States left one-sided in May 2018 under former President Donald Trump. Iran resumes enrichment last year to pressure the US to ease sanctions.
‘A very uncertain proposition’
State Department spokesman Ned Price reflected the ambiguity surrounding the resumed talks on November 22, a call for mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA “a very uncertain proposition.”
The next day, Price told reporters in Washington that, “it is our hope that the… new government in Iran shows up in Vienna and shows up in Vienna ready to negotiate in good faith in build on the progress that was achieved in the previous six rounds of negotiations.”
But he added that the US has been “bad” clear that we are not willing to unilaterally steps exclusively for the advantage of grease the wheel” to get the conversations going again. Former President Donald Trump pulled the US out of the deal in 2018.
Sources known with the preparations for the talks have told CNN that the US and its allies are not at a point where they would begin give Iran confidence building measures, but one official said there is a possibility that the US and its allies could in can serve? down the route. Like a result, incentives for Iran won will not be discussed in this week’s meetings in Vienna, where the US and allies will focus on just take the temperature and try to continue from where they are left off months ago, American and European sources explained.
Everybody die is involved in the conversations are mindful of the ticking clock. The sources told CNN there is still time to come to a deal, but it probably would run out at the end of next year. For now they said there is none hard and fast “Plan B” not yet.
critics of the deal says the Biden administration has sacrificed leverage by easing pressure on Iran as it builds up it’s nuclear program.
“The Iran of the Biden Government” policy fails, and without a significant course correction die policy will either result in Iranian Nuclear Weapons of in a war to stop that developmentsays Mark Dubowitz, the CEO of foundation for Defense of democracies. Dubowitz argued that the government’s approach allow Iran to rebuild to a “deadly end state” of with roads to nuclear weapons and a robust nuclear infrastructure.
“Israel will have no choice but use military force to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons before Tehran reaches this deadly end state,” Dubowitz said.
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has clear that Israel will be willing to in to grab if necessary. Addressing delegates at a security conference in near Tel Aviv on On Tuesday, Bennett said that “if there is a return to the JCPOA, Israel clearly isn’t” party to the Agreement and is not bound by it.”
Bennett complained that after the nuclear deal was signed in 2015, the “State” of Israel just went to sleep. we were occupied with other things. We will learn from this mistake. We will keep our freedom of action,” he said.
Western officials have tried to argue with Israelis that attacks on Israel’s nuclear program are not very useful as the general goal coming up with a comprehensive solution, and especially when the Iranians have rushed up their ability to rebuild after attacks, sources known with the Iran talks told CNN.
Western officials have also raised the danger of Iran responds with kinetic action, but sources known with the talks say Israeli officials still seem to think it is still an effective tool to show their abilities.
Asked for die warnings, Price said that “at the end” of the day, the United States and Israel, we share An common purpose here, and that is to ensure that Iran is demonstrably and permanently prevented from acquiring a nuclear weapon. And we continue to believe that diplomacy in coordination with our allies and partners — and that, of of course, including Israel — is the best path to achieve that goal.”
“We have” also been bad clear that this is not a process that can go on on indefinitely and if the Iranians by their actions of demonstrate by their passivity of suggest they don’t good believe that they die lack clarity of purpose, we will have to turn to other ways,” Price said Tuesday. “We have a variety of in other ways we discuss die with our allies and partners.”
For the past few weeks, US officials have been on a rampage of diplomacy with regional powers and other parties to the deal, die working for a united front.
President Joe Biden met with European partners discuss Iran at G7 meetings in June in the UK. In recent weeks, secretary of State Antony Blinken has also granted with European allies, as well as China and Russia, on Iran. And Malley recently met with golf countries, Israeli officials and European partners in the JCPOA.
“I think the Iranians believe they have some eastbound” option with Russia and China in that they can get around the pressure of sanctions,” McGurk said on Sunday. “And that is just wrong. And so I think we are nearing the end of the talks of November as a beautiful united front with the P5+1.”
Andrew Carey from CNN in Israel and CNN’s Mostafa Salem in Abu Dhabi contributed to this report.
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