Sports Predicting NCAA Tournament risers and fallers among top 16...

Predicting NCAA Tournament risers and fallers among top 16 seeds in March Madness bracket preview


The NCAA has actually taken grand actions towards openness with its NCAA Tournament seeding procedure over the past numerous years, beginning with the mock choice committee workout for media members over a years earlier. That has actually been a welcome advancement.

And on Saturday, for the 4th year in a row, the choice committee assembled and worked out a take a look at the NCAA Tournament’s top 16 seeds if the season had actually ended that day. The seeds aren’t binding, naturally, however the expose does provide us a take a look at how the committee members see teams with their present resumes.

MORE: No sure thing to win NCAA Tournament thanks to this insane season

So what we’re going to do today is take those 16 teams– the top 4 seed lines– and project out a bit. Based upon what they’ve currently achieved and how their staying schedule looks, we’re attempting to address this concern: Are those teams more most likely to remain where they are now, to fall a seed line or 2, or perhaps jump up a seed line?

Let’s begin.

No. 1 seeds

1. Baylor (21 -1)

Varieties of note: KenPom: 5|NET: 3|Quadrant 1 record: 8-0

Stay, rise or fall? Stay. At this moment, how can you question Baylor, the top total seed from Saturday’s expose? The Bears have actually gone beyond all expectations, and they have not simply been accumulating empty wins. They won at Kansas and knocked off top-30 NET teams Butler, Arizona, Villanova and Texas Tech. There is margin for mistake here.

2. Kansas (20 -3)

Varieties of note: KenPom: 1|NET: 4|Quadrant 1 record: 10 -3

Stay, rise or fall? Fall. Take a look at the schedule. There are 3 other Big 12 teams in the NET top 20, and the Jayhawks still need to play 2 on the roadway. , if they lose those 2– no embarassment in that– that presses them to 5 losses.. And with the Choice Committee’s apparent pleasure of shimmering records outside the Power 5 (with Gonzaga, San Diego State and Dayton among the top 2 seed lines), that may be a bit much to get rid of.

3. Gonzaga (25 -1)

Varieties of note: KenPom: 2|NET: 2|Quadrant 1 record: 5-1

Stay, rise or fall? Stay. They’re on the No. 1 seed line now, and they’re not most likely to lose once again prior to Choice Sunday.

4. San Diego State (24 -0)

Varieties of note: KenPom: 4|NET: 1|Quadrant 1 record: 4-0

Stay, rise or fall? Stay. The Aztecs are preferred by a minimum of 8 points in their final 5 regular-season games on, and if they make it through the routine season unbeaten, it’s hard to think of the committee bumping them off the top seed line no matter what takes place in the Mountain West Tournament (believe Saint Joseph’s in 2004).

MORE: Evansville upset of Kentucky sends out clear message to country’s top programs

No. 2 seeds

5. Duke (20 -3)

Varieties of note: KenPom: 3|NET: 6|Quadrant 1 record: 3-1

Stay, rise or fall? Stay. The ACC this season simply does not provide the kind of elite triumphes heaven Devils would need to climb up above teams such as Gonzaga and San Diego State. You see the 3 Quadrant 1 wins? That’s not the common strength of resume we’re utilized to seeing from heaven Devils.

6. Dayton (21 -2)

Varieties of note: KenPom: 6|NET: 5|Quadrant 1 record: 3-2

Stay, rise or fall?Rise I understand, it sounds insane to think of a circumstance, in 2020, where 3 of the 4 teams on the No. 1 seed line originated from teams outside the standard power conferences (with Baylor, of all teams, as the only power agent). We are close to a circumstance where that takes place. It’s extremely possible (most likely?) that Dayton triumphes. , if Kansas loses a couple times and Duke and Louisville slip up in ACC play this might occur..

7. Louisville (21 -3)

Varieties of note: KenPom: 9, NET: 7, Quadrant 1 record: 3-3

Stay, rise or fall? Stay. The Cardinals do not have anything looking like a bad or perhaps average loss, and they have strong wins versus Duke and Michigan. like we discussed with Duke, the ACC does not actually provide chances for elite wins. Of Louisville’s staying 7 games, just one– at Florida State– would move the needle at all.

8. West Virginia (18 -5)

Varieties of note: KenPom: 7|NET: 9|Quadrant 1 record: 5-3

Stay, rise or fall? Fall. This was true even prior to the Mountaineers lost at Oklahoma by 10 this weekend, as discussed by SN’s college hoops expert, Mike DeCourcy.

MORE: Kansas loss to Nova shows ‘there simply isn’t one team that’s dominant’

No. 3 seeds

9. Maryland (19 -4)

Varieties of note: KenPom: 8, NET: 8|Quadrant 1 record: 6-4

Stay, rise or fall? Stay. When the Terps were in the middle of losing 4 times in 7 games, an area on the No. 3 seed line appeared, well, not likely. They have actually won 6 in a row, consisting of 3 on the roadway, and are playing like a team planning to move up. They still have a difficult roadway ahead: 6 of their final 8 games are versus top-35 teams according to the KenPom top 35, a slate that consists of 4 roadway contests.

10 Florida State (20 -3)

Varieties of note: KenPom: 19|NET: 13|Quadrant 1 record: 3-2

Stay, rise or fall?Rise Let’s state, for argument’s sake, the Seminoles follow the KenPom forecasts and go 7-1 the remainder of the method, with a loss at Duke and a home win versus Louisville. That would put them at 27 -4 on the year and 14 -4 in Quad 1/2 games (depending upon how a number of those fall on the split line). That actually feels like a strong No. 2 seed, does not it?

11 Seton Hall (18 -5)

Varieties of note: KenPom: 12|NET: 12|Quadrant 1 record: 8-4

Stay, rise or fall?Rise Take a look at that 8-4 record vs. Quad 1teams Just one team– Kansas– has more than 8 Quadrant 1 triumphes.

12 Villanova (17 -6)

Varieties of note: KenPom: 28|NET: 18|Quadrant 1 record: 5-6

Stay, rise or fall? Fall. It was a little unexpected to see Villanova on the No. 3 seed line, what with the under-.500 Quadrant 1 record and computer rankings that lagged lower than the No. 12 total seed the Wildcats held in this expose.

No. 4 seeds

13 Auburn (21 -2)

Varieties of note: KenPom: 30|NET: 15|Quadrant 1 record: 4-2

Stay, rise or fall? Stay. Of their past 5 wins, 3 have actually been in overtime and a 4th was by a little 4points Auburn is flourishing in close games, however that feels like an unsteady course to extended success. Their finest nonconference wins are versus bubble-at-best A-10 teams Richmond and Saint Louis. That’s not the kind of thing that convinces the committee to provide a team a top 2 or 3 seed. The Tigers aren’t going to bully their method up a seed line or 2 with that thin of a resume. If they keep winning and the teams ahead of them stumble? It’s possible.

14 Oregon (18 -6)

Varieties of note: KenPom: 25|NET: 25|Quadrant 1 record: 6-4

Stay, rise or fall? Fall. The Ducks have actually quacked up back-to-back 10- point roadway losses to teams outside of even the bubble discussion, Stanford and Oregon State. They do have good wins versus Seton Hall, Houston, Arizona, Michigan and Memphis (when the Tigers had James Wiseman) however this feels like a team that’ll settle well into the 5-6 seed variety.

15 Butler (18 -6)

Varieties of note: KenPom: 23|NET: 14|Quadrant 1 record: 7-5

Stay, rise or fall? Stay. When the choice committee gets to scrubbing the resumes, the 7 Quadrant 1 wins are a good little nugget to have in your pocket. The Big East is difficult, however, and it’s simple to drop a number of fast games.

16 Michigan State (16 -8)

Varieties of note: KenPom: 10|NET: 11|Quadrant 1 record: 2-7

Stay, rise or fall? Fall. This expose taken place Saturday early morning, prior to the Spartans lost at Michigan, their 3rd loss in a row and 5th in their past 8games That 2-7 mark in Quadrant 1 games isn’t going to assist their case, either.

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