Bill Gates explains why we should all be optimists

Look at how long people live, the reduction in mortality below five, the reduction in how poorly women are treated. Inequality is decreasing worldwide: poorer countries are getting richer faster than richer countries. The majority of humanity nowadays lives in countries with an average income. Fifty years ago there were few middle-income countries. Then there is the ability of science to solve problems. We have made a lot of progress with regard to heart disease and cancer; with some of the more chronic diseases such as depression and diabetes . Even with obesity we get some fundamental insights into the microbiome and the signaling mechanisms involved.

So yes, I am optimistic. It bothers me that most people aren’t.

Maybe you prefer a successful person?

Of course we have to take that into account. In my own life I have been very lucky. But even if I deduct my personal experience, I think the big picture is that it’s better to be born today than ever, and that it’s better to be born in 20 years than today.

One of the technologies on your list is laboratory meat, which is still very provisional and expensive. Why did it work out?

Part of the reason I chose it is to remind people that clean energy does not solve climate change. Only about a quarter of emissions come from electricity generation. This is a category that people do not pay much attention to as a greenhouse gas problem. And yet I think the path to dissolving it is clearer than in, for example, cement or steel or other materials.

Another choice is the reinvented toilet, which you call the greatest progress in sanitation in 200 years. Why?

Building sewers, using clean water, having a processing plant – that is the paradigm in rich countries. In low-income countries, the capital costs of a sewer system are simply unreachable. This toilet takes human waste, liquid and solid, and in most cases a sort of separation takes place. The solids that you can essentially burn. The liquids that you can filter. That has a huge effect on the quality of life, both in terms of disgust and illness, in an increasingly urbanized world. The Gates Foundation has spent $ 200 million in grants to get this technology going. It is not there yet.

Three of your choices are about reducing greenhouse gas emissions. You manage a $ 1 billion investment fund, Breakthrough Energy Ventures. But it feels like there are already many technological solutions for climate change. Do we really need more? Isn’t the biggest political problem?

No, the problems are when you say to India: “Give everyone electricity to get things that we take for granted – heating, air conditioning.” Their path is to build more coal-fired power stations. This is the cheapest form of electricity for them. In France, they were asked to pay a 5% increase on their diesel price, and even that was unacceptable.

Politics determines where you will invest in fundamental research or how you make things attractive for innovative companies. But if we freeze technology today, you are guaranteed to live in a warmer world of 4 ° C in the future.

One of those choices is nuclear fusion. That is something that always seemed to be around the corner. What makes you optimistic about that?

The company Breakthrough is investing in, Commonwealth Fusion Systems – with the methods they use, you can drastically reduce the size and therefore the capital costs. It is very impressive. There are more than 10 companies that pursue mergers in different ways. Most of them will not work. But these projects will certainly make a major contribution. So I think it’s important that we support merger.

Sign up for The download – your daily dose of what’s going on in emerging technology

China is becoming a technological superpower. How do you think this will turn out when fear of its power is anchored?

The idea that they are starting to become innovative – that is good for the world.

Like most countries with an average income, they are more than willing to do large projects. Think of the US in the 50s and 60s, Japan in the 70s and 80s, Korea in the 80s and 90s. Your technological skills become really strong and you are willing to go out and do very, very ambitious things.

It is good for the US to feel that we need to renew our lead. In the 70s and 80s, when we searched: “Oh dear, Japan has discovered things that we have not done,” we renewed our commitment to fundamental research. In fact, Japan would never overtake us when it comes to scientific innovation. But I think that was healthy for us.

These are edited excerpts from a conversation with Gates at his Seattle office on January 9. You can view a longer version of the interview here.