Vale Stock: Why JPMorgan Analysts Say It’s Too Cheap to Ignore After Major De-Rating

Vale: A Promising Opportunity for Investors

According to JPMorgan analyst Rodolfo Angele, metals and mining company Vale is currently undervalued and presents an attractive investment opportunity. Despite experiencing a significant decline of over 27% in its share price this year, Angele believes that Vale’s cheap valuation makes it difficult to ignore.

Reasons for Upgrading Vale

The current valuation of Vale is 4.2 times its 2024 enterprise value to EBITDA, compared to a peak of 5.9 times. Moreover, Angele notes that Vale’s stock trades at a discount compared to its peers. This compelling valuation, coupled with the potential for improved performance in the coming quarters, prompted Angele to upgrade Vale’s rating from neutral to overweight.

Potential Catalysts for Vale’s Growth

Angele highlights several factors that could drive Vale’s growth in the near term. Firstly, the resumption of operations at the Torto dam is expected to lead to increased volumes, creating a favorable setup for Vale. Additionally, the overproduction of steel in China presents a potential catalyst for Vale’s shares. Angele points out that the annualized production of steel in China has already exceeded 2022 levels by 2.5% this year, while prices remain robust.

Positive Outlook on Iron Ore Prices

Angele believes that current iron ore prices are being supported by China’s improved sentiment towards reopening its economy and maintaining a strong steel output. He expects iron ore prices to average $100/t in the fourth quarter of 2023 and $98/t in 2024. Additionally, Angele views China’s recent government growth targets as a positive indication that the country prioritizes economic growth and is unlikely to curb the demand for iron ore as it has done in the past.


Vale presents a promising investment opportunity, given its undervalued stock price, potential for increased volumes, and positive outlook on iron ore prices. JPMorgan analyst Rodolfo Angele has upgraded Vale to overweight, with a price target of $16, reflecting more than 21% upside from the current value. Investors may find it advantageous to consider Vale as part of their investment portfolio.

Source: AsumeTech’s contributed reporting

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