The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States could face an economic recession and rising unemployment over the next 12 months.
The newspaper said, according to economists, that the economic recession in the country will come in the specified period with a probability of 63%, although this figure has not exceeded 50% since July 2020.
The paper notes that the outlook for 2023 is becoming “increasingly bleak”. If American economists had told her in July that US GDP would grow by 0.8% year on year in the first quarter of 2023 and 1% in the second quarter, now they believe that US GDP will fall first by 0.2 %, then by 0.1%.
She added that the negative impact of the economic downturn will also affect the labor market, as in the second quarter of next year, the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector is expected to decrease by an average of 34,000 per month, and in the second quarter of next year – by 38,000. per month in the third quarter.
Economic forecasts are based on an analysis of the actions of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), which acts as a central bank, explains the Wall Street Journal.
Experts doubt the Fed’s ability to keep raising interest rates to fight inflation without triggering unemployment and economic stagnation.
Earlier in October, James Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, one of the largest US banks, said that the US economy could enter a recession in six to nine months.