The Golden State Warriors and the Dallas Mavericks square off in a key Western Conference matchup Saturday night. The game also represents a rematch from Thursday evening, with the Warriors winning comfortably behind a prolific offensive effort. Golden State is 12-10 this season, with Dallas sitting at 9-14 in 2020-21. The Warriors are 4-5 on the road, and the Mavericks are just 2-7 at American Airlines Center.
Tip-off is at 8:30 p.m. ET in Dallas. William Hill Sportsbook lists Dallas as a four-point home favorite, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 231 in the latest Warriors vs. Mavericks odds. Before making any Mavericks vs. Warriors picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it is also on a stunning 73-44 roll on top-rated picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Warriors vs. Mavericks spread: Mavericks -4
- Warriors vs. Mavericks over-under: 231 points
- Warriors vs. Mavericks money line: Mavericks -165, Warriors +145
- GSW: The Warriors are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
- DAL: The Mavericks are 3-7 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Warriors can cover
Golden State dominated the first matchup between the two teams on Thursday, using a small-ball approach to great effectiveness. The Warriors were able to exploit the Mavericks in space, and Kelly Oubre Jr. exploded for a career-high 40 points, including seven 3-pointers. While that 31-point margin of victory is not a realistic baseline, the Mavericks are struggling right now, losing seven of the last eight games.
From there, Dallas is the second-worst rebounding team in the league, grabbing only 47.5 percent of available rebounds, and the Mavericks are 25th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Dallas also struggles to keep opponents off the free throw line and, offensively, the Mavericks are fourth-worst in assist rate (56.2 percent) and last in 3-point shooting (33.2 percent) this season.
Why the Mavericks can cover
Dallas is undoubtedly struggling, but the team has a lofty baseline. Luka Doncic is one of the best offensive creators in the NBA, averaging 27.2 points and 9.4 assists per game, and the Mavericks have strong secondary options. As a team, the Mavericks commit a turnover on only 12.2 percent of possessions, top-three in the NBA, and Dallas also has a top-10 free throw creation rate.
In this matchup, Dallas is facing a team in Golden State that is strongly below-average on the glass, ranking in the bottom three in both offensive rebound rate (22.8 percent) and defensive rebound rate (71.6 percent). Finally, Golden State is last in the NBA in preventing its opponents from shooting free throws, and the Mavericks should be able to exploit that weakness.
How to make Mavericks vs. Warriors picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with the simulations projecting 226 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Mavericks vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.
Read More: NBA News