Why are coups making a comeback? in Africa?

This power grips threaten a turnaround of the democratization process that Africa has gone through in the past two decades and a return to the era of coups as the norm.

According to one study, Sub-Saharan Africa had 80 successful coups and 108 failed coup attempt between 1956 and 2001, an average of four a year. This figure has been halved in the period from then to 2019 when most African countries turned to democracy, only for it until once again to be on the rise. Why?

In the early post-colonial decades, when coups were rampant, African coup leaders almost always gave the same reasons for overthrowing governments: corruption, mismanagement, poverty.

The leader of Guinea’s recent coupColonel Mamady Doumbouya, repeated these justifications, citing “poverty and endemic corruption” as reasons for knock down 83 year former president Alpha Conde. The soldiers who led a coup in neighboring country Mali last year claimed”theft” and “bad management” prompted their actions. Similarly, the Sudanese and Zimbabwean generals who Omar al Bashir. overthrown in 2019 and Robert Mugabe in 2017 used similar arguments.
guinea pig military officer says President Alpha Conde arrested as apparent coup unfolds

Though worn out, these justifications still resonate with many Africans nowadays for the simple reason they continue to display the accurate reality of their countries. Further, in a lot of countries, people feel this problems deteriorate.

The research network Afrobarometer has conducted surveys over 19 African countries die 6 . showed in 10 respondents say corruption is on the rise in their country (the figure was 63% in guinea) while 2 in 3 say their governments are doing poorly to fight it.

Furthermore, 72% believe ordinary burgers”risk retaliation of other negative consequences” if they report corruption to the authorities, a sign Africans believe that their public settings are not just Attendees in, but active defenders of, corrupt systems.

When it comes to poverty, already tragic situation has been worsened by the mistreatment of Africa’s fragile economies took of the coronavirus pandemic.

An in three people are now unemployed in Nigeria, the largest in West Africa economy. The same applies for South Africa, the most industrialized African country. It is now estimated at the number of extremely poor people in Sub-Saharan Africa has crossed the 500 million mark, half the population.
This in the youngest continent in the world with an average age of 20 and a faster growing population anywhere, a further intensification of a already powerful competition for sources.

These conditions create fertile conditions for coups and for increasingly desperate young Africans who have lost patience with their corrupt leaders to welcome coupists die promise radical change, as seen on the streets of Guinea after the takeover, with some delighted Guineans even kiss the soldiers.

But if with the coups of the 70s these scenes of joy will probably be short-lived, says Joseph Sany, Vice President of the Africa Center of the United States Institute of Peace. “The first reaction of what you see on the streets will be of joy, but bad soon, people will demand action… and that’s not me sure the military will be able to deliver on the expectations, basic services, more freedoms,” he says.

Threat to Democratic Profits

What’s clear is that these coups pose a serious threat to Africa’s democratic achievements countries to have made in recent decades. worrying, research shows that many Africans believe less and less that elections can produce the leaders die they want.

Surveys conducted in 19 African countries in 2019/20 shown just 4 in 10 respondents (42%) now believe in elections work good to ensure “MPs reflect voters’ views” and to “voters in to remove non-performing leaders.”

In other words, less than half faith elections guarantee representativeness and accountability, key ingredients of functional democracies.

About 11 countries Questioned regularly since 2008, the belief that elections voters in enable to remove non-performing leaders met 11% down points below the burgers, according to the research. It’s not that Africans no longer want to choose their leaders via elections, it’s just that many now believe that their political systems are a game.

leaders like the deposed Conde are part of the problem. The only reason he was quiet in power to the coup was because he was constitutionally constructed changes in 2020 for himself in to enable a thirdterm as president, An common practice by multiple leaders on the continent, by Yoweri Musevenic in Uganda to Alassane Ouattara in Ivory Coast.
Mali's president resigns after his arrest in An military coup d'état

The African Union rightly condemns Guinea’s coup, but its response to such constitutional violations has been… muted.

This double norms and alleged elite conspiracies create the perfect environment for young reckless officers like the 41-year-old Doumbouya to step in and promise to save the day.

“As the people being crushed by their elites, it is up to the army give the people their freedom”, said Guinea’s new leader, citing the former Ghanaian President Jerry Rawlings who led two coups

It is perhaps no coincidence that Doumbouya quoted the feisty Rawlings, who was very effective in expressing the anger die Ghanaians felt towards their political elites when he led military juntas in the eighties. desperate burgers die life in political systems that they often rightly believe are fixed can be easily seduced by anti-elite, anti-corruption rhetoric coupled with the promise of the new.

We should, alas, prepare us for the possibility of more coups in Africa in the next few years. They are not to be expected in richer countries with strong institutions like South Africa, Ghana of Botswana, but in the poorer more fragile states. So are Mali, Niger, Chad and now Guinea, where coups and coup attempts have recently taken place.

Fifteen of the twenty countries tops of the 2021 Fragile States Index to be in Africa, including countries like Cameroon, Central African Republic, Somalia and South Sudan, as well as larger countries like Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia (which has seen a violent internal conflict) for close to a year now) and Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa.
Men are being marched out of prison struggling.  Then corpses float down the river

This increasing opportunity of coups will make Africa in general less predictable and stable, a negative for investors die may end up deterioration of the economic situation.

Can this undesirable trend be reversed? Yes, but while the international convictions of coups in Guinea and elsewhere are crucial as a deterrent to other potential power grabs, the only actors who really have the power to reverse this worrying trend are the African leaders themselves.

They are the ones in to upload on the ground and it is their response to this recent events that will be the deciding factor. She need to the faith that democracy can deliver new life in to blow for Africans. But if the problems still cited to justify coups, is getting worse in African democracies today, then the temptation to try something else will remain dangerously tempting, both for coupists and burgers.

Read More: World News


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