On Wednesday, Russia said it would resume its participation in the Ukraine grain export agreement after it was suspended over the weekend.
Moscow’s announcement of the sudden decline came after Turkey and the United Nations helped keep Ukrainian grain flow for days, without Russia participating in inspections.
The three-month wheat deal eased the global food crisis by lifting a de facto Russian blockade on Ukraine, one of the world’s largest suppliers, before the prospect of its collapse revived fears of hunger and rising prices in Worldwide.
Russia suspended its participation in the deal over the weekend, arguing that it could not guarantee the safety of civilian ships crossing the Black Sea due to an attack on its fleet there. Ukraine and the countries of the West replied that it was a false pretext with the aim of “blackmailing” by threatening the global food supply.
But Russia’s suspension of its participation did not stop shipments, which resumed on Monday without Moscow’s participation in a program supported by Turkey and the United Nations, before Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Wednesday that that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar that the deal would be resumed.
The Guardian believes the decision, and then retract it in a few days, it clearly means that Moscow lacks a specific “plan”, and that what happened was a “humiliating turn” taken by Putin after consultations with Erdogan, while the “only claim” represented in presence of “guarantees”. Written “from Kiev.
Tatiana Stanovaya, head of the R. Politik analytical institute, says that after the suspension of the grain export agreement, it was not clear in Moscow how to implement it, as it was impossible except by using military means and that “it was not part of the Russian plans “.
In a video speech late Tuesday evening, before Erdogan announced the resumption of the deal, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the ships were still leaving Ukrainian ports with cargo thanks to the efforts of Turkey and the United Nations.
They may have been promised private to Russia, including guarantees that it can export its agricultural products. However, according to Stanovaya, the latest decision by the Kremlin shows that Putin is holding back in the face of resistance or challenges, or that he “knows how to back down if necessary.”
According to the “Guardian”, the leaders in The West must now study what exactly prompted Putin to back down, especially after he recently showed his intention to step up, as a way to save face on the battlefield.
Faced with a Ukrainian counterattack that began weeks ago, Russia has fired hundreds of missiles at Ukrainian power plants and other key infrastructure, with the aim of plunging Ukrainian cities into darkness and cold and threatening a humanitarian crisis with the beginning of winter.
The West was also concerned about Moscow’s threats to use all means at its disposal, including tactical nuclear weapons, to protect the illegally annexed Ukrainian territory.
Ukrainian officials saw the Kremlin’s retreat as an important lesson for the West on how to challenge the Russian leader.
And Mikhailo Podolyak, advisor to the Ukrainian president, wrote that the Russian blackmailer (meaning Putin) is inferior to the powerful who know how to clearly express their position. He added that the way to stop the aggressor is to show strength in calculated way.
The Guardian indicated that Russia’s decision to suspend the deal would anger leaders in the Middle East and Africa after Putin sought their support, which was confirmed when Erdogan made it clear. announce the resumption of the agreement, that the upcoming shipments of Ukrainian agricultural products were destined for Somalia, Djibouti and Sudan.
Russian blockade of Ukrainian exports across the Black Sea since the invasion began on February 24 has exacerbated the food shortage crisis and high cost of living in many countries, given that Ukraine is one of the largest suppliers of wheat and semi oily to the world.
Putin felt that Moscow reserves the right to withdraw from the agreement again, the current term of which expires on November 19, but added that if it withdraws, it would not prevent Ukraine’s grain shipments from reaching Turkey.
While German Foreign Minister Annalina Birbock said that the resumption of the agreement showed the importance of standing firm in the face of Moscow’s demands.
Erdogan’s role
As for Erdogan, Putin’s regional rival, he emerged as a big party in the smoke of battles, as he played a leading role in prisoner exchanges, when Russia released the besieged Ukrainians from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, after which Moscow had previously threatened to execute them in a military court.
As Russia’s isolation deepens, both diplomatically and economically, Turkey’s influence is clearly increasing, according to the Guardian.
A senior Ukrainian official, who asked not to be named, told Reuters that Moscow’s decision was mainly the result of Turkish pressure.
“I said Ankara might have the last word here, but I didn’t expect it to have such a big influence on Putin,” wrote Andrei Sizov, head of the agricultural market research firm Sov-Econ.
Russian anger
Within Russia, the grain export agreement has aroused anger even among war advocates, who have refused “written guarantees” and in some cases have accused the government of selling out Russian soldiers.
“They don’t care about this war! What matters is the money,” wrote the administrators of one of the famous Telegram accounts that mobilize funds and equipment for the Russian military. “This is what the politicians think … As for our soldiers who nearly died in the Sevastopol bay, they don’t care.”
Even pro-Kremlin bloggers and journalists have not refrained from criticizing the Russian position, and Alexander Kots, a journalist with the pro-Kremlin newspaper “Komsomolskaya Pravda”, also mocked the “written guarantees”.
Even the report of “Colonel Cassad”, which has more than 800,000 subscribers, has put in doubt the usefulness of the trust “as regards the Ukrainian guarantees”.