The World Bank said global food and fuel price shocks are expected to last until at least the end of 2024 and increase the risk of stagflation.
In the first comprehensive analysis of the impact of the war in Ukraine on the commodity markets primethe World Bank, which provides loans and grants to low- and middle-income countries, said the world is facing the biggest shock to commodity prices prime since the 70s.
He added that this shock is exacerbated by restrictions on trade in food, fuel and agricultural fertilizers (fertilizers), which are already adding to high inflationary pressures. in around the world, according to Reuters.
Russia is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas and fertilizers and the second largest exporter of crude oil. Together with Ukraine, it makes up about a third of world grain exports, 19% of corn exports and 80% of sunflower oil exports.
Production and exports of these and other goods were halted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24.
As a result, the World Bank predicts that energy prices will increase by more than 50% in 2022 before decreasing in 2023 and 2024, while the prices of non-energy products, including agricultural and mineral products, are expected to rise by about 20% in 2022 before recording moderate increases. .
The bank claimed that commodity prices prime they will decrease only slightly and remain well above the media most recent five-year medium term.
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