Market Volatility: Bitcoin Struggles Below Critical Support
Bitcoin’s price has taken a significant dip, dropping below $115,000 for the first time since late July. As analysts spotlight this key support level, the looming question is whether BTC will plunge toward $104,000 amidst growing investor apprehension.
Recent data indicates that Bitcoin has been unable to breach the $120,000 resistance mark for over three weeks, raising doubts about the sustainability of its upward momentum. Market analyst Michaël van de Poppe has underscored the importance of maintaining the $115,600 mark. A drop below this figure could trigger extensive long-side liquidations, potentially dragging the price down to the $110,000–$112,000 zone.
This week, Bitcoin realized an intraday low of $114,100, correlating with substantial liquidations amounting to $172 million. If the cryptocurrency fails to reclaim the $116,000 level imminently, the chances of a deeper correction definitely escalate.
Bearish Signals and Divergence Indicators
Compounding the bearish sentiment, Bitcoin’s weekly chart is showing troubling signs of a classic bearish divergence. While BTC/USD has consistently printed higher highs over recent months, the relative strength index (RSI) exhibits lower highs. This discordance indicates a potential weakening of bullish momentum, often preceding significant pullbacks in price.
Historical patterns suggest that such divergences are precursors to retracements. If this pattern holds, BTC could target its 50-week exponential moving average, currently positioned around $92,000. This trendline has served as critical support during previous bullish cycles, rendering it a plausible destination in the event of a mid-cycle retracement.
Adding further complexity, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric indicates that over 92% of its supply is currently in profit, a scenario typically linked to increased sell-side pressure. Such conditions have historically led to retracements, reminiscent of the pullbacks in March 2024 and January 2025.
Despite these bearish indicators, CoinGlass reports that 30 bull market peak indicators hint at Bitcoin maintaining a robust position with a potential target price of around $138,000. Other optimistic perspectives suggest that the market still has several months before a peak, possibly reaching $150,000.
As the market navigates these twists and turns, investors remain on high alert for signs of volatility. By understanding the nuances of current price actions and support levels, one can better gauge the trajectory of Bitcoin in today’s complex cryptosphere.