Ether Futures Overtake Bitcoin: A Game-Changer for the Crypto Market
The cryptocurrency landscape is witnessing a significant transformation as Ether (ETH) perpetual futures volume has eclipsed that of Bitcoin for the first time since 2022. This notable shift highlights growing interest in Ethereum, emphasizing a pivot in trading dynamics among crypto investors. With ETH trading just below the crucial $4,000 resistance since December 2025, market participants are navigating a complex terrain filled with both opportunities and challenges.
Momentum Builds Above $4,000
Despite its struggles at the $4,000 mark, optimistic analysts see potential for a bullish breakout. A pivotal target for bulls is the +1σ active realized price band, hovering around $4,500. This metric represents the average cost of ETH that is currently changing hands on the network and has historically acted as a significant resistance level. Data from Glassnode indicates that this threshold served as a barrier during the March 2024 highs and throughout the previous 2020–21 cycle. If Ether manages to sustain a breakout above this level, it often leads to explosive upward momentum, although it brings a risk of overheating and volatility.
Investor sentiment is further substantiated by the performance on futures markets. Recent reports show that Ether futures are not just gaining traction; they are dominating Bitcoin in terms of volume for the first time, suggesting a realignment of trading strategies. Pseudonymous trader Byzantine General shared an optimistic view, stating, “It’s too strong, refuses to print any significant correction… It’s looking like a just f***ing send it moment.” This sentiment is reflected in Ether’s liquidation maps, which reveal a cluster of short liquidations positioned just above the $4,000 level. A clean breach of this barrier could trigger approximately $930 million in liquidations, potentially propelling prices quickly toward $4,500.
Bearish Divergences Signal Caution
While bullish momentum is dictating the narrative, caution is warranted. Technical indicators are signaling potential weaknesses that may impede the rally. The relative strength index (RSI) on both the four-hour and daily charts shows bearish divergences, indicating possible buyer exhaustion. Historically, such bearish divergences have preceded local tops, suggesting that if Ether cannot convincingly break through $4,000 with substantial volume, a short-term pullback might occur.
Should this bearish scenario unfold, immediate support could be found just below $3,700, where a narrow fair value gap (FVG) exists. However, sustained bearish pressure may drive Ether toward its long-term FVG, located between $3,200 and $3,300, raising concerns about a more significant bearish break of structure.
As market dynamics evolve, traders are keeping a close eye on ETH’s movements and the intricate balance between bullish momentum and bearish signals. The coming days are critical as traders assess whether Ethereum can maintain its upward trajectory or if a correction is on the horizon.