US President Joe Biden described the current decade as a defining decade, yet many did not notice this statement, which signifies the beginning of the era post-Cold War in which the global system dominated by America by Russia and China could disintegrate.
Observers describe competition between the great powers as very low in what they see as Russia’s destruction of Ukraine. The new Cold War is itself very complex, given the complex economic interdependence between the West and China.
According to the “Economist” report, the Russian invasion of Ukraine broke the rule established after the Second World War, according to which borders should not be forcibly changed. This war revived the specter of nuclear warfare for the first time since the end of the Cold War, as Putin used the threat of nuclear weapons not as a last resort but as a primary threat to protect his war against aggression.
However, Russia only poses the “pressing” problem as America sees it, as the greatest threat to world order comes from what the Pentagon calls the “speed” challenge from China, the only country that has the ability to overthrow America as the leading power in the world.
China’s military is expanding rapidly and already has the world’s largest navy, third-largest air force, a dense array of missiles, and space warfare as well as strength in cyberspace.
The report warned of the transformation of the “borderless” friendship between Russia and China in a real alliance, and at the moment there are few prove of China’s assistance to Russia in its war. But authoritarian regimes regularly conduct military exercises, and some senior US officials believe the two countries will grow closer.
And with China building its nuclear arsenal to perhaps 1,500 warheads by 2035, meaning its size will approach that of the American and Russian arsenals, the US will need to learn the new art of three-way nuclear deterrence. , and this, in turn, can lead to a new arms race.
The transition to a new world order has begun
The report indicated that international transformation has begun to occur in one moment in which America’s relative weight in the global economy is declining. Over the past century, America’s GDP has been much larger than its rivals Germany and Japan in World War II, and the Soviet Union and China in the Cold War.
However, in these days, China’s GDP is not far behind the US (in fact, it surpasses it when measured). in terms of purchasing power parity). And US defense spending, albeit huge in value terms, was close to historic lows in percentage of GDP. This began to change after Congress voted on Dec. 23 to approve a much larger increase in defense spending than Biden had requested.
Ancient geopolitical theories and control lanes
Due to the new cold war, the old geopolitical theories have been reconsidered.
In 1904 the British strategic geographer Halford Mackinder argued that whoever controlled the heart of Eurasia (roughly between the Arctic Sea and the Himalayas) could lead the world.
In this analysis, an alliance between Russia and China could pose a serious threat.
In contrast, contemporary American Alfred Thayer Mahan saw control of commercial shipping lanes as the key to global power.
Somewhere in between, Nicholas Speakman, another American, argued in 1942 that what matters is not the heart of Eurasia but its border, and he argued that the maritime frontier lands stretching from the Atlantic Ocean, across the Mediterranean and around South Asia to Japan vital ground.
He wrote: “Whoever controls Rimland rules Eurasia, and whoever rules Eurasia controls the destinies of the world.” And in its attempt to beef up its alliances to balance out its competitors from Eurasia, it seems America is the closest to Spikeman’s thesis.
surround and isolate Russia
At the western end, NATO has been revitalized to strengthen Europe and take on Russia. American and other allied forces have been reinforced along the border with Russia. After abandoning neutrality, Finland and Sweden have applied to join NATO.
Meanwhile, on the eastern edge of the rim, talks of a future war with China over Taiwan have intensified, especially after a controversial visit to the island in August by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
And Biden hopes that his recent personal meeting (the first as president) with the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, has laid the foundations to avoid a deterioration in relations.
Mr. Xi may be worried about domestic problems, not least the slowing economy and turmoil in his virus policies, but US military officials, in in particular, they say they want to develop the military capability to conquer Taiwan by 2027.
New alliances against China
America does not have a NATO-like alliance in Asia to limit China. Instead, it operates a pivotal system of bilateral defense agreements with Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and Thailand, all of which have no obligations to each other.
To create greater cohesion, America has expanded its schemes such as the “Five Eyes” (with Australia, Great Britain, Canada and New Zealand), sharing information with Australia and Great Britain, seeking to develop nuclear-powered submarines and other weapons, and discussing everything from vaccines to maritime security with the Quadruple Alliance (Australia, India and Japan). South Korea and Japan have set aside old grievances to conduct joint exercises, amid massive missile launches (and an expected test nuclear) by North Korea.
India is the big surprise
India remains the prize for American strategists and has a tradition of non-alignment and pro-Soviet leanings, but has drawn closer to America because of its strained relations with China.
And the annual Malabar naval exercises between America and India have grown to include all members of the Quartet. Though India has been coy about criticizing Putin’s attack on Ukraine directly, Kurt Campbell, the White House’s top adviser on Asia, says it represents “the most important US bilateral relationship in the 21st century.” .
Middle East
Meanwhile, successive American presidents in The Middle East and Central Asia have sought to scale back their military commitments after decades of fruitless warfare in Iraq and Afghanistan. But a sharp rise in oil and gas prices at the beginning of questyear, exacerbated by war in Ukraine, reaffirmed the geopolitical importance of the Gulf.
America’s relationship with Israel could be tested by the return of Benjamin Netanyahu as head of a coalition that includes far-right ministers.
Biden’s hope was to curb Iran’s nuclear program by relaunching a new nuclear deal, but it hasn’t materialised. Any deal to lift sanctions is now impossible given widespread anti-regime protests in Iran.
However, the Iranian regime’s uranium enrichment work continues apace, defying President Biden’s pledge to prevent the mullahs from acquiring nuclear weapons.
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