NATO is convening a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11 to approve new defense plans, and is hopeful to announce the full approval of Sweden’s membership. However, Turkey’s objection has become a major hurdle in this process. In order to join NATO, countries need unanimous approval from the existing member states. Turkey, leveraging its strength as a NATO member, is using this opportunity to extract concessions from other countries, which could have significant consequences for Turkey, Sweden, and the entire alliance.

Turkey objects to Sweden’s membership in NATO due to Sweden’s support for Kurdish groups that Ankara considers terrorists. Sweden has made efforts to adjust its policies according to Turkey’s demands, but Erdogan, the Turkish President, is not satisfied. This objection is also seen as a flex by Turkey to remind the West that its demands must be taken seriously.

Turkey’s objection is part of a broader geopolitical strategy. Erdogan maintains a friendly relationship with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and refuses to adopt Western sanctions against Russia. While Erdogan approved Finland’s accession to NATO in March, Turkey believes that Sweden has not made the progress necessary to meet Ankara’s demands. Turkey views Sweden’s alleged support for Kurdish protests and its failure to extradite certain Kurdish activists as threats to its national security interests.

While Turkey’s objection may benefit its geopolitical strategy, it also poses risks. Tensions with Western allies could escalate, and it could have negative economic consequences. Turkey’s economy has been unstable in recent years, and any further risks could worsen its precarious macroeconomic situation. The window to exploit Sweden’s membership for gain is closing, and if Turkey does not approve Sweden’s NATO membership at the summit, it could lead to a major crisis in Turkey-NATO relations.